“South Yemen’s strategic location secures vital global maritime routes along its coastline from Al-Mahra to Bab al-Mandab, acting as a defensive barrier for the Arabian Peninsula.”

Mohammad Fawzi (South24 Center)

Amid the rapid changes sweeping the Middle East, particularly the security fallout from Israel’s recent multi-front conflict, regional maritime corridors are facing increasing challenges, with the Red Sea emerging as a focal point of concern.

In this context, South Yemen has grown in strategic significance, serving as a key factor in maintaining the stability of these vital sea lanes and as a cornerstone of regional security. Its importance lies in its geographic position overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, as well as its extensive coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Recent movements by the Southern Transitional Council in the governorates of Hadramout and Al-Mahra have raised important questions about their impact on security and stability in the Red Sea. These developments have also reignited discussion over the potential role of the Southern forces in securing this strategic maritime corridor and countering the threats that surround it.

First: The Strategic Importance of South Yemen as a Stabilizing Factor for Red Sea Security

South Yemen’s governorates are growing in importance for Middle East maritime security due to key strategic factors.

1. Coastal Significance: South Yemen’s coastline stretches approximately 1,800 kilometers, from the Hawf region in the east to the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the west, giving it the largest maritime expanse in the Arab world. Estimates suggest that while the region’s land area is around 330,000 square kilometers, its maritime domain approaches 900,000 square kilometers, three times larger than its landmass. Control of the Socotra Archipelago further extends Yemen’s strategic reach across the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.

This coastal position links southern Yemen to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The strait serves as a vital artery for global trade, connecting shipping routes from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. It also integrates maritime corridors linking Europe with Red Sea states, and the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia with the Mediterranean, before extending toward the Atlantic Ocean and Northwestern Europe.

2. Latent Strategic Capabilities: South Yemen’s strategic location provides significant geopolitical and economic leverage. Alongside the north, the South plays a vital role in securing the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Its islands and maritime zones host major ports, which are vital to Yemen’s economy.

The eastern governorates are also rich in oil, gas, and mineral resources, offering substantial economic potential and forming a key asset for long-term stability and regional development.

3. South Yemen as a Frontline Against Smuggling: South Yemen is a critical zone for disrupting smuggling networks, particularly in Hadramout and Al-Mahra. Strategic land and maritime border points in these governorates have been exploited in recent years to enhance the Houthis’ missile and drone capabilities.

These areas have also functioned as points of tactical convergence between the Houthis and terrorist organizations, including Somalia’s Al-Shabaab, which is affiliated with Al-Qaeda.

4.Regional Security Significance: Geostrategic factors in South Yemen are central to national and regional security, significantly affecting stability amid the ongoing Middle East conflicts. The state's geography shapes its defense strategies and relations with neighbors.

South Yemen’s strategic location secures vital global maritime routes along its coastline from Al-Mahra to Bab al-Mandab, acting as a defensive barrier for the Arabian Peninsula. The region also plays a key role in countering terrorism, crime, and smuggling, supporting security efforts across the Gulf and Horn of Africa, and is crucial for global energy and trade.

Second: Implications of South Yemen Developments for the Red Sea

Recent movements by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Hadramout and Al-Mahra have major impacts on Red Sea security and stability. These changes are driven by several key factors:

The prolonged instability and weak enforcement along Yemen’s coastlines have posed serious threats not only to Yemen’s internal security but also to the broader regional security architecture. These risks include smuggling networks, maritime threats from non-state actors, and challenges in managing refugee flows along the 1,800-kilometer border with Saudi Arabia and the more than 280-kilometer border with Oman.

- Securing major ports, energy resources, and the maritime corridor by Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which approximately four million barrels of oil pass daily, is critical for global trade and energy security. South Yemen’s geographic position makes it a key safeguard in this regard.

- The strategic ports of Aden and Mukalla, along with Perim Island and the Socotra Archipelago, are now effectively under STC influence. This control strengthens maritime logistics, enhances coastal security, and supports efforts to combat terrorism and transnational organized crime.

- These developments extend the impact of Operation “Golden Spear,” launched in January 2017 to liberate the western coastal cities from Houthi control. The operation curtailed Houthi influence, secured vital maritime corridors, and closed coastal smuggling routes. Previously, security gaps in eastern South Yemen allowed smuggling, illicit financing, and armed groups to operate freely, conditions the STC’s advances now aim to reverse.

- The STC’s advance in Hadramout and Al-Mahra has effectively ended the last significant military influence of factions affiliated with the Yemeni Islah Party (the Muslim Brotherhood) and has further constrained Houthi presence. This shift is expected to allow the Southern forces to prioritize countering Al-Qaeda affiliates operating in southern Yemen.

Third: Southern Transitional Council’s Opportunities to Enhance Red Sea Stability

Through recent advances in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has made South Yemen a key player, not just locally, but across the wider regional security landscape. Factors highlight their growing strategic influence:

First: Limiting Houthi Influence: The STC’s expansion reduces the operational reach of Iranian-backed Houthi forces in South Yemen. Iran’s criticism reflects concerns over its shrinking influence and the disruption of logistical routes previously supporting the Houthis, rather than a defense of Yemeni unity.

Second: Strengthening Regional Stability: The STC’s control, combined with its objectives and the current regional context, particularly U.S. efforts to secure major maritime corridors, creates opportunities for increased coordination to stabilize the Red Sea.

Third: Institutional and Operational Advantages: The STC is seen as a reliable partner by many international actors, with a well-structured security apparatus, significant military influence in Yemen, and a strong history against extremist groups.

At the same time, challenges remain. The STC must negotiate the political future of the South governorates, build effective security institutions to fill gaps, and prepare for potential clashes with the Houthis or the Islah Party (Muslim Brotherhood). Its success will also depend on regional and international cooperation to address ongoing security threats in southern Yemen.