"The conflict between the Houthis and Israel will continue as long as it benefits both parties"

Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24 Center)

The ceasefire agreement in Gaza, which came into effect on October 10, represents a critical turning point in the trajectory of events in the Middle East. After two years of devastating war, signs of a comprehensive truce have emerged for the first time, backed by unprecedented international guarantees. Yet, the truce remains fragile and vulnerable to relapse.

While attention is focused on the Palestinian situation, fundamental questions arise regarding other files affected by this ceasefire, foremost among them the Yemeni file, which for years has been a theater for intersecting regional and international influence.

For Yemen, the Gaza war was not merely an external event. It became a direct factor influencing the dynamics of its internal crisis. The Houthis’ involvement in the conflict, through targeting international shipping in the Red Sea and launching attacks on Israeli territory, has taken the group beyond local confrontation into the broader regional arena.

This strategic shift has frozen the Yemeni political process and disrupted UN-sponsored peace efforts.

Today, with the Gaza ceasefire in effect, questions are being raised within Yemeni and international political circles about whether this truce could pave the way for renewed political dialogue in Yemen, or whether the Houthis will continue to exploit the regional conflict as leverage to consolidate their internal power. There are also questions about whether the UN roadmap remains viable now after the changes imposed by the Red Sea crisis.

Implications of the Ceasefire

To understand the implications of the Gaza ceasefire on the Yemeni file, it is first necessary to understand how the war itself changed the trajectory of the Yemeni crisis.

The Gaza war reshuffled the Yemeni scene after the Houthis shifted from a limited domestic front to the larger regional theater via their Red Sea attacks, using the Palestinian conflict as a pretext to expand their military operations. This direct involvement in the conflict with Israel turned Yemen into one of the frontlines of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance,” prompting the creation of regional and international coalitions around Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea shipping lanes.

The Houthi attacks on ships and Israeli territory have led to a complete freeze of the UN-sponsored political process in Yemen and suspension of the roadmap that was on the verge of being signed in late 2023.

In response to the Houthis, Israel and the United States carried out massive airstrikes targeting key infrastructure in Houthi-controlled northern Yemen, including Hodeidah ports, Sanaa airport, power stations, and cement factories. On August 28, Israel struck a building in Sanaa where the top Houthi government officials were meeting, killing the prime minister and several ministers.

Days later, the Houthis announced the death of their Chief of Staff Mohammed al-Ghamari , reportedly in the same strike, though the group withheld confirmation until the Gaza ceasefire came into effect.

Speaking about the impact of the Gaza agreement on Yemen, Abdulaziz al-Aqab, head of the Fikr Organization for Dialogue and Freedoms, told South24 that the Gaza truce could open a new window for de-escalation in the country, stressing that developments in Palestine have a direct effect on Yemen’s political and regional environment.

He added that the Houthis’ participation in any Yemeni talks had been contingent on an end to the Gaza war, which directly tied the Yemeni crisis to the Palestinian conflict. According to al-Aqab, ending of the hostilities in Gaza could help create a more stable environment for political solutions in Yemen and revive diplomatic efforts to end the Yemeni war permanently.

He argued that, despite its fragility, the truce could help revive the UN process through confidence-building measures and reactivation of dialogue channels. He maintained that the UN roadmap remains applicable despite the recent geopolitical changes, describing it as “a framework for building trust, improving living conditions, and preparing positive conditions for comprehensive political dialogue leading to a sustainable solution.”

However, he emphasized the need for including monitoring mechanisms, a timeline, and clear implementation guarantees to avoid repeating past failures, stressing that its success would depend on the commitment of the local and regional actors to a genuine peace process.

Al-Aqab also called for adoption of a peace-oriented discourse and language of de-escalation instead of incitement. He also underscored the need for rationalizing media rhetoric and building trust among parties in search of realistic solutions that ensure a comprehensive and just peace.

In contrast, Yemeni journalist Adnan al-Jabrani, a military affairs and Houthi specialist, offered a more cautious reading. He told South24 that “the Gaza ceasefire has not yet had a clear impact on the Yemeni file.”

He noted that the Houthis have not declared an end to their military operations, merely stating that they are “monitoring the agreement” while remaining ready to intervene at any moment. This, he said, makes it difficult to determine if the agreement has had any definitive impact on Yemen, except that the current phase represents a temporary lull to reassess options and explore opportunities to revive the UN roadmap.

Al-Jabri added that while the truce offers a chance for de-escalation, the Yemeni file will remain largely suspended. He argued that “it is unlikely that a comprehensive path will emerge in the near term, especially amid ongoing internal divisions and weak international will.”

In recent days, officials from the Houthi group threatened to launch attacks on Saudi oil and energy facilities and to resume the war. On October 14, the group issued a statement through its political council member Hizam al-Asad, who accused Riyadh of what he described as “stalling in fulfilling its commitments.” He vowed to strike Aramco and Neom, an ambitious futuristic city being built by Riyadh, to prevent “famine among the Yemeni population”.

In further signs inconsistent with the general truce, the Houthis raided UN offices in Sanaa and confiscated IT and communications equipment, according to a UN statement on October 27.

The UN said the group arbitrarily detained one of its staff members just days after detaining five others in the capital, in what UN sources described as a dangerous precedent threatening humanitarian work in Yemen.

A source told South24 that on October 25, the Houthis raided the office of UN envoy Hans Grundberg in Sanaa and tampered with its contents.

Fernando Carvajal, an American expert and former member of the UN Security Council Panel of Experts on Yemen, believes that the conflict between the Houthis and Israel following the Gaza ceasefire “will persist as long as both parties see mutual benefit in it.”

Speaking to South24 Center, Carvajal said: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs a foreign enemy to justify the continuation of his operations against Hamas, while the Houthis need to keep this conflict alive to maintain their prominence within the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and preserve their international support among anti-Israel activists.”

Carvajal pointed out that the conflict offers the Houthis an opportunity to mobilize the Yemeni public in areas under their control and marginalize other political forces, as no one can criticize them as long as they claim to be confronting Israel.

For his part, Nick Broomfield, an American researcher specializing in Yemeni affairs, said “the conflict between the Houthis and Israel could take on an independent dynamic, irrespective of the ceasefire in Gaza,” noting that the situation “remains open to multiple possibilities given the fragility of the truce.”

Speaking to South24 Center, Broomfield added: “The recent explosion aboard the ship ‘Falcon,’ which is believed to have possibly resulted from a covert Israeli attack targeting an Iran-linked shipment bound for the Houthis, may be an indication of continued low-level, undeclared conflict between the two sides.”

Military and Technical Dimensions

Regarding the Houthis’ military capabilities over the past two years, Carvajal said, “The group’s missile arsenal relies primarily on Iran.” He added “It remains unclear how many missiles they have been supplied with, as they do not possess the capability to manufacture them from scratch.”

He noted that the Houthis’ drone stockpile is not substantial, and the group has become more cautious in deploying them in anticipation of potential escalation against its rivals in Yemen or Saudi Arabia.

Carvajal added: “The Houthis may prefer to claim responsibility for attacks against Israel without actually deploying many drones, in order to preserve their aerial arsenal while waiting for the right moment.”

In contrast, Broomfield believes the group has made qualitative progress in its military expertise over the past two years, noting that “it was previously unimaginable for the Houthis to carry out strikes deep inside Israeli territory, but they have done so recently.”

He added that this development “reflects a growth in their military proficiency, although the interception of several Iran-linked weapons shipments destined for the Houthis by their adversaries may place increasing pressure on smuggling networks and partially slow the pace of their capability development.”

Outlook

Although the Gaza ceasefire has given the region a limited chance to catch its breath, the Yemeni crisis remains mired in internal political deadlock and complex regional entanglements. The truce’s impact on Yemen is likely to be functional and temporary, easing tensions without altering the roots of the conflict or creating a new path toward settlement.

On the ground, the ceasefire has not translated into any tangible change. The Houthis’ behavior remains rooted in escalation and the exploitation of political chaos, particularly as they continue their aggressive practices against UN staff in Sanaa and other areas under their control, which could jeopardize the entire UN-led mediation process.