Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

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Over the past weeks, Hadramout in South Yemen has witnessed a rapid escalation of incidents and the emergence of local agendas with suspected cross-border links. The oil-rich governorate, which was long described as a relatively calm oasis since the beginning of the Yemeni crisis, is now sitting on a powder keg due to the raging political and security tensions. 

 

At the heart of this escalation, lies a raging confrontation between the local authorities, led by Governor Mabkhout Bin Madi, and the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy, headed by prominent tribal leader Sheikh Amr Bin Habrish who also chairs the Hadramout Inclusive Conference. The latter is a prominent local political entity who is calling for autonomy in the governorate minus any clear features or framework.

 

A pivotal escalation point occurred when the Hadramout Inclusive Conference issued a strongly-worded statement on April 15 in which Bin Habrish accused the governorate’s Security Committee - chaired by Governor Bin Madi, the leader of the Second Military District, and the Hadramout Security Chief - of collusion and deliberately obstructing efforts to achieve self-rule. 

 

The statement claimed that more than 2,500 armed elements from Southern governorates such as Aden, Lahj, and Al-Dhalea had entered the coastal city of Mukalla. Although the statement did not mention any parties by name, it pointed to the presence of anonymous parties seeking to ignite the conflict and forcefully imposing their political agendas. The Hadramout Inclusive Conference called on the Saudi-led Arab Coalition and the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to intervene immediately. 

 

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) wields control over the three governorates mentioned in the statement, pointing to the implicit reference to it in those accusations.

 

In an alignment between two dissimilar parties, the Yemeni Islah Party, which is an influential Islamic faction linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, announced in December 2024 its endorsement of the stances adopted by the Inclusive Hadramout Conference. Mohammed Baltif, Secretary General of the Executive Office of the Islah Party in Hadramout, confirmed his support for Bin Habrish's latest move. This is considered an indication of an unofficial political alliance aiming to change the status quo in Hadramout. 

 

The following day, the Security Committee in Hadramout issued a statement denouncing the Hadramout Inclusive Conference’s remarks, terming it as an incitement and harmful to the social cohesion of the governorate. The Security Committee stressed that it will not tolerate the presence of parallel authorities and will confront any attempts to undermine state institutions.

 

For its part, the STC, which maintains a strong military and social presence in Hadramout, outlined its stance regarding the developments in the governorate. On April 15, Anees Al-Sharafi, Deputy Head of STC Foreign Affairs, reiterated the council's support to the governorate in managing its affairs, and warned against disinformation campaigns aiming at destabilizing the situation. 

 

Taking on a more conciliatory tone, Akram Naseeb Al-Amry, Secretary General of the Hadramout Inclusive Conference, called on April 16, for de-escalation and dialogue. On the same day, the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy condemned what it described as retaliatory measures by the authorities, including the arrest of media figures such as journalist Awad Kasheem in Wadi Hadramout. 

 

However, the rifts within the structure of the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy have come out in the open. On April 16, former founders of the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy, including its former secretary general Sheikh Omar Bashqar, held a meeting to complete the selection of a new leadership for the alliance. This came after the decision to sack Amr Bin Habrish during a major meeting in Al-Oyoun near Mukalla on March 22.

 

Sheikh Omar Bashqar took to his Facebook page to announce the establishment of a five-member committee to resume efforts that may lead to two versions of the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy, each vying for the legitimacy to lead the tribal component in the governorate. These moves came amid internal anger at the way Bin Habrish has been managing the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy. 

 

On April 12, Bin Habrish organized a large mass meeting in the Hadramout Plateau calling for self-rule. He urged hundreds of his supporters to escalate the issue on the ground. The gathering held aloft photos of Saudi Defense Minister Khaled Bin Salman. 

 

This development came days after Bin Habrish’s visit to Saudi Arabia in late March during which he met Prince Khaled Bin Salman and other Saudi officials. 

 

Meanwhile, the STC is preparing to organize a large mass demonstration in Mukalla on April 24 to commemorate the “liberation” of Mukalla and Hadramout from the grip of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in 2016 and to express support for the ’Hadrami Elite Forces‘ affiliated with it within the scope of the Second Military District. 

 

Moreover, groups in Hadramout, such as one called ’Shabab Al-Ghadab (Youth of Anger)’ called on the Hadrami people to take part in supporting Southern sovereignty and to merge Hadramout within the future South state.

 

STC Vice President and PLC Member Major General Faraj Al-Bahsani stressed the need for establishing a unified political entity representing all Hadrami segments, which was also endorsed by Major General Ahmed Saeed Bin Brik, Vice President of the Southern Transitional. Council (STC).

 

On April 17, Faraj Al-Bahsani reiterated the call for stopping media campaigns that are political in nature to allow for rapprochement and real solutions in Hadramout and to maintain the unity of ranks and community structure in the governorate. 

 

On April 18, Ahmed Bin Brik arrived in Mukalla in the first appearance of the prominent Hadrami leader in several months. Both Al-Bahsani and Bin Brik were Hadramout governors and enjoy high popularity. 

 

Regional Competition and Local Agents

Commenting on the fast-paced developments in Hadramout, Dr. Omar Bajardana, Chairman of the Knowledge Center for Strategic Studies, told ‘South24 Center’: “Hadramout has undoubtedly become an arena for regional competition in which the local parties have turned into agents for external conflicts”. He told ’South24 Center‘ that Hadramout's political map has been reconfigured by foreign forces who exploit tribal and political affiliations to serve their interests.”

 

He emphasized that “this competition is clear in the escalation of the narrative war by which each party seeks to dominate public opinion. The stakes are high, and the discourse strategies reflect the wider geopolitical conflict in this region.”

 

The emergence of a new political entity has further complicated the scene. The ’Change and Liberation Movement‘ entity has recently emerged in the desert of Al-Abr District in Wadi Hadramout, controlled by the First Military District (consisting of thousands of Northern soldiers) and the Nation Shield forces affiliated with Saudi Arabia. 

 

An informed source told ’South24 Center‘, on condition of anonymity, that this movement is seen as a tribal Islamic project backed by Saudi Arabia and the Islah Party, and has links to extremist networks in the region. 

 

The movement is led by Riyad Bin Shuaib Al-Nahdi, known as ’Abu Omar‘. The source described him as a figure who has previous links with the AQAP. He added that the launch of the ’Change and Liberation Movement’ was coordinated by Sheikh Ali Bin Haftan from the Kinda Tribe and this was exclusively covered by media outlets affiliated with the Islah Party. 

 

In a television interview on Al-Mahriya channel, Abo Omar Al-Nahdi admitted to being a former AQAP member before his defection from the organization in 2018. He said the new political entity has nothing to do with the extremist organization. 

 

Dr. Bajardana warned of the ramifications of the emergence of this entity amidst the fast-paced political developments. He said: “The public emergence of a group that has links to terrorism in front of the Internationally-Recognized Government and the STC reflects a failure in addressing the roots of extremism in Hadramout.”

 

Political analyst Salem Ahmed Al-Murshidi expressed similar concerns. He told ’South24 Center‘ that the movement is a deliberate attempt to confuse the scene at a critical juncture, and that “this group apparently has emerged with a subtle timing to dismantle existing alliances”. 

 

According to Al-Murshidi, the ’Change and Liberation Movement‘ is seeking to challenge the influence of the STC by presenting itself as a Hadrami alternative despite lacking popular support. He considers it “an artificial movement aimed at tearing apart the Southern front”. Bajardana stressed that its emergence reflects external efforts to redraw the limits of political influence in Hadramout. 

 

Notably, the formation of this dubious political entity has come amid heightened security operations carried out by the Southern forces in Shabwa, targeting AQAP elements. It has also come concurrently with the suspected US airstrikes that killed AQAP elements in Wadi Hadramout and Shabwa. This is in addition to the assassination operation by unknown elements which killed a Saudi AQAP member in Marib in Central Yemen. 

 

Authorities in Hadramout have repeatedly warned against forming of unlicensed militias. The Second Military District and Hadramout Police have previously issued statements denouncing these attempts, describing them as moves that would incite chaos. These attempts include the ‘Hadramout Protection Forces’, an armed group that Amr Bin Habrish intends to form on the coast of Hadramout. 

 

The Upcoming scenario 

Political analyst Salem Al-Murshidi believes that Hadramout is witnessing an unprecedented state of political and security turmoil and what happens later will be based on the ability of its leaders to overcome divisions and serve the supreme interest of Southern stability.

 

Regarding the future paths, he added: “We may see a repositioning by all parties over the coming months. Much depends on their ability to reach a consensus. If that does not happen, it will rely on the readiness of external forces to identify the steps of the next stage.” 

 

Dr. Bajardana stressed that the harmony between the STC and the Yemeni central government in some files has further complicated the situation. He explained that “stability cannot be achieved without the effective participation of state institutions in outstanding issues such as power outages, inflation, and governance gaps”. 

 

With April 24 approaching, the STC is intensifying its efforts for the mega event. Brigadier General Mohammed Al-Mohammadi, Head of the Local Council in Mukalla, met students from the Hadramout University affiliated with the STC to arrange for the demonstration. 

 

Al-Murshidi said: “The STC wields significant influence in Hadramout districts. Its position qualifies it to lead the next phase. However, it needs to move quickly to confront the escalating challenges.” 

 

He concluded: “The push for restoring the South decision is gaining more momentum. It seems that the STC is determined to capitalize on this volatile moment.”