These attacks have left a leadership vacuum within the AQAP, especially in terms of its military, sharia, and media aspects. A large percentage of its strategic brains were eliminated, including military commanders supervising major operations. However, the AQAP still constitutes a big challenge.

Ibrahim Ali* (South24)

Since the formation and rapid rise of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen from the 2000s, the organization has constituted a major threat to the security and stability of the region as it carried out several transcontinental operations. However, many senior AQAP leaders were killed in airstrikes carried out by the United States, weakening the terror group markedly. Over the past years, the US carried out effective drone strikes against the AQAP, eliminating most of the organization’s prominent first, second, and third rung leaders. Most of them had received training in Afghanistan.

These attacks left a leadership vacuum within the AQAP, especially in terms of its military, sharia, and media aspects. A large percentage of its strategic brains were eliminated, including military commanders supervising major operations, in addition to media figures who attempted to recruit new members through motivational propaganda. AQAP’s religious leaders who played a big role in promoting the organization’s ideology and issuing fatwas to support its activities were also eliminated, delivering a big blow to the group.

With the continuation of such attacks, the AQAP’s ability to rearrange its ranks and restore its past stature has declined. Consequently, filling the vacant leadership positions after the killing of its senior members has become a difficult task. However, some active AQAP cells are still operating in different areas of Yemen. They are continuing with their attempt to rearrange ranks despite the organization’s heavy losses over the past years.

There are a few AQAP leaders who survived the US attacks, but they are less experienced and don’t possess the cunning of their predecessors. This has weakened the AQAP leadership structure as well as its planning and implementation potential. 

Currently, the AQAP is facing big challenges to restore its strength. It still lacks its previous unified leadership. Furthermore, the organization's financial and human resources have become limited. Despite the restructure attempts, the reality indicates that AQAP has become less capable of carrying out large-scale operations. 

Notwithstanding these challenges, the AQAP hasn't been eliminated yet. Even amid these heavy losses, several AQAP leaders and supporters still seek to maintain the organization’s presence in the region. However, the US drones continue pursuing and targeting them. 

It can be stated that Al-Mughy, nicknamed Abu Ali Al-Disi, is the latest senior AQAP leader to be killed by a drone. He was killed along with a senior military commander early this month in Shabwa. Thus, Al-Disi, a senior religious leader, joined a big list of senior and influential leaders to be killed in drone attacks over the past years, including the AQAP Emir Nasser Al-Wuhayshi (June 2015), Deputy Emir Saeed Al-Shihri (September 2012), military official Nassr Al-Ansi (April 2015), sharia official Adel Al-Abbab (October 2012), advocacy official Mamoun Hatem (May 2015), sharia and advocacy official Ibrahim Al-Rubaish (April 2015), sharia official Hareth Al-Nadhari (January 2015), and the AQAP Emir who succeeded Al-Wuhayshi, Qassem Al-Raymi (February 2020). However, Al-Raymi’s successor Khaled Batarfi is said to have died of natural causes. The AQAP announced his death on March 11, 2024. He was reported to have been suffering from a heart ailment.

In a recent incident, two AQAP senior leaders, Mohammed Saeed Al-Muhammadi, nicknamed Abu Yusuf Al-Hadrami, and Abu Assem Al-Sanaani, were killed in a motorcycle explosion in Al-Samdah in Marib on February 8, in the first operation of its kind. Al-Muhammadi is one of the sharia leaders to have been killed in quick succession. Four AQAP sharia leaders were killed in over one month. 

Following this incident, two other AQAP leaders were killed in two separate raids by US drones on February 12. While Saudi national Abu Mohammed Al-Hudhali Al-Makki was killed in a US raid in Al-masaniah in Shabwa, Ayoub Al-Lahji, one of the group's most dangerous artillery experts, was killed in a similar strike in Abyan. These raids are considered a big development in terms of the scope of the military operations which have extended for the first time to include Abyan and Shabwa. Over the past years, the US drone attacks had focused mainly on Marib, especially Wadi Abidah. 

These airstrikes come amid the ongoing large ground operation known as ‘The Arrows of the East’, led by the Southern forces to combat the AQAP in Abyan. It was launched in August 2022 and has successfully weakened the organization’s capabilities, besieging its movement in the Southern areas. The ‘Arrows of the East’ operation has been able to diminish the AQAP’s influence in some of its main strongholds. This has obstructed the movement of its elements. Despite the challenges facing the Southern forces in light of the complicated security and geographical circumstances, their strategy of cracking down on the AQAP has made the organization vulnerable to the US drone strikes. 

Photos of some AQAP leaders who were killed over the past weeks in US airstrikes and a security operation launched by the Southern forces (compiled by Mohammed Bin Faysal Ali).

Who are the Remaining AQAP Leaders in Yemen?

The appointment of Saad Bin Atef Al-Awlaki as AQAP’s new leader in March 2024 (succeeding Khaled Batarfi) denotes a big crisis facing the organization related to the lack of leaders, particularly local ones. Despite the importance of his position, Saad Atef is considered among the less influential leaders in comparison to others. This reflects the organization’s lack of cadres who have a high level of local leadership experience. However, Atef is considered “the option of necessity” amid the absence of other choices to fill the leadership vacuum.

Saad Atef is among the few leaders who have survived the intensified US drone airstrikes targeting AQAP senior leaders. Despite being AQAP Emir, Atef still lacks local leadership experience. The organization has begun to increasingly rely on leaders with non–Yemeni backgrounds. However, despite the long experience of such leaders, their presence in Yemen is still limited. They aren't appointed in important leadership positions but they play influential roles. They include Egyptian Ibrahim Al-Banna and Sudanese national Osama Al–Qosi. The local leaders include Saad Atef Al-Awlaki, Munir Al-Bajli Al-Ahdal, Samir Balqadi, Rayan Al-Hadrami and judge Abu Beshr (detained by the Marib authorities). This is in addition to other field and sharia leaders of lower ranks.

In light of Al-Qaeda’s weakness at the level of the central leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it seems that Yemen may turn into a pivotal point for the parent organization in the region. The Yemeni branch is considered among the most active ones affiliated with the global network of Al-Qaeda despite the decline of its activities over the past years. The general leadership of Al-Qaeda is trying to fill the AQAP leadership vacuum by sending new balancing leaders to this branch.[1]

In 2022 and 2023, the Leader of Al-Qaeda Ahmed Saif Al-Adel sent a number of field leaders to Yemen in a move to fill the leadership vacuum left by the US attacks. Saif Al-Adel, who is considered one of the most prominent Al-Qaeda leaders, bets on Yemen as a new incubator for the organization. The new leaders can manage its operations in a more effective way to ensure the continuation of the jihadi activities in the region. This move is part of a new strategy to enhance the group’s local operations, particularly in light of the growing pressure against the organization in other areas in the world. Saif Al-Adel’s son Khaled Zidane, who was killed in a fire incident in Marib in March 2024, was among those sent to Yemen by his father.

Al-Qaeda’s enhancement of its Yemeni branch undoubtedly reflects the security challenges facing Yemen and the region in the near future. The reinforcement of this branch isn’t limited only to sending leaders, as information indicates that the organization received funds from Iran. In light of this development, it can be said that the counterterrorism military operations led by the Southern forces in Yemen need more coordination between the local and international forces to confront these growing threats. Furthermore, the international community’s support for the Southern forces’ counterterrorism efforts is very important, especially in the wake of the repositioning of terrorist organizations in areas not fully dominated by the forces. This requires new strategies to combat the spread of these organizations.

The AQAP is undoubtedly facing big challenges, foremost of which are the US airstrikes targeting its leaders and elements. This is in addition to the Arab Coalition-backed security operations carried out by the Southern forces. The AQAP is also hit by internal divisions and disputes between some of its leaders. This impacts its cohesion and the ability to carry out qualitative operations.

Regardless of these challenges, the AQAP still constitutes a real threat, particularly in light of the lack of political stability in parallel with the Houthi militia’s control in North Yemen. This threat may grow further if there is an international and American approach to reduce their counterterrorism efforts in the region. Hours after his inauguration on January 20, US President Donald Trump imposed a total freeze on the foreign assistance related to counterterrorism programs, including confronting the Somali movement ’Al-Shabaab‘ and containing Al-Qaeda in West Africa. According to the ’Washington Post’, this move threatens the counterterrorism efforts globally, endangering the US and its allies in the region.