"Israel may continue its policy of "Individual targeted strikes" against prominent Houthi leaders, at intermittent intervals, aiming to politically and psychologically exhaust the group without being drawn into a full-scale confrontation."

Ibrahim Ali (South24 Center)

After maintaining silence for two days, the Houthi group announced the death of its—internationally unrecognized—Prime Minister Ahmed Ghaleb Al-Rahwi, along with eleven ministers and senior officials, in an Israeli airstrike that targeted the capital, Sanaa, on Thursday, August 28.

This military operation marks Israel’s first publicly acknowledged success in targeting high-ranking figures within the governmental structure of the religious group in Sanaa. It reflects a shift in the confrontation trajectory—from focusing on military sites and infrastructure to targeting the political leadership. The operation also demonstrated Israel’s possession of precise field intelligence that enabled it to track the movements of senior Houthi officials.

Despite the implications of the strike, it can be described as a relatively accessible target, as it did not affect the group’s deep structural core but rather its administrative sector. The operation reflects Israel’s boldness more than it does comprehensive intelligence superiority, especially in light of previous inconclusive attempts to target top military executives, notably Chief of Staff Al-Ghamari and Defense Minister Al-Atifi. The delay of more than 24 hours in the Houthis’ announcement of the Prime Minister’s death revealed the extent of the group’s confusion and the gravity of the loss.

Internal Political and Security Impact

The timing of the strike and the number of high-profile casualties delivered a dual shock to the group, as it targeted the civilian government responsible for administering areas under its control. Although the losses did not directly affect independent military capabilities, they posed a significant political and moral challenge. Speeches by the group’s leadership, including Supreme Political Council President Mahdi Al-Mashat, underscored the severity of the event through the threats of retaliation he issued.

The operation also cast a shadow over the relationship between the Houthis and the General People’s Congress Party, in which Al-Rahwi had a prominent presence. The appointment of Mohammed Moftah, a figure aligned with the group, as acting Prime Minister will undoubtedly raise questions about the future of power-sharing—especially amid recent tensions that included the arrest of GPC party leaders in Sanaa. This may lead to a reconfiguration of the internal alliance and further consolidate the Houthis’ grip on the government.

The Israeli operation is expected to significantly heighten internal anxiety and disarray within the Houthi group, compelling it to tighten security measures across governmental, administrative, and military sectors. These measures may include enhanced protection for leadership figures, monitoring employee movements, and imposing stricter restrictions on internal mobility. Such steps will increase the group’s organizational isolation and exacerbate financial and logistical pressure on the group, particularly given its limited resources.

Furthermore, the group will likely seek to swiftly compensate for the governmental losses by redistributing positions and recruiting new loyal cadres to fill the leadership gaps. This move may reshape internal power balances and impact the efficiency of the administrative sector, as the unrecognized government may struggle to maintain operational continuity and effectively implement policies—especially under time constraints and the urgent need to replace lost leadership.

The group is also likely to escalate internal repression to reinforce its security grip, including through new arrests of those it perceives as opponents or threats to its authority. This would place additional strain on its human and organizational resources and deepen the group's isolation from the surrounding society, which could lead to escalating tensions between the leadership and the communities in the areas under its control. This is reinforced by the Houthi militia's raid, two days after the Israeli strike, on several UN headquarters in Sanaa, where they carried out a campaign of arrests targeting 19 UN employees. The UN Secretary-General strongly condemned these actions and demanded their immediate release.

 Notably, the Houthis have intensified their use of propaganda tools to boost the morale of their members and counter political shocks, emphasizing their readiness to escalate retaliation against adversaries and asserting their ability to withstand external pressures. This was evident in speeches by the group’s leader Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi and political council president Mahdi Al-Mashat. This strategy may lead to simultaneous intensification of its media and military campaigns, further draining the group’s resources and compounding its human and financial challenges, and placing its leadership under significant pressure to maintain control and internal cohesion.

Regional and International Implications

The strike has placed Yemen within a broader regional conflict, where Israel employs the same leadership-targeting strategy it previously used against Hezbollah, Palestinian, and Iranian figures, aiming to disrupt organizational structures and undermine the adversary’s morale. The success of the operation in Sanaa opens the door to potential future repetitions, having proven Israel’s ability to gather precise field intelligence.

Conversely, the continuation of such strikes may compel the group to develop stricter secrecy for its movements and meetings, and to intensify missile and drone attacks against Israel—keeping the state of war ongoing. Regionally, Iran—the group’s primary backer—is closely monitoring developments, while other countries are keeping a watch for any escalation that could impact the security of the Red Sea and vital maritime routes. 

Targeting the Houthi Prime Minister and several of his ministers mirrors the methodology used by Israel in assassinating Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, focusing on striking the top ranks to inflict amplified psychological and political damage and shatter the sense of immunity among leadership figures. The operation also forces the Houthis to contend with a leadership vacuum and disruption in political decision-making, akin to Hezbollah’s losing its internal operational rhythm in the aftermath of the previous assassinations.

However, there are fundamental differences between the two cases, most notably the geographical and political environment. Lebanon is geographically close to Israel and hosts a complex intelligence network, whereas Yemen is more distant, necessitating advanced targeting tools such as satellites and drones, besides regional cooperation. Moreover, the Houthis are more internationally isolated compared to Hezbollah, making their targeting less politically costly for Israel, and also allowing for an expansion of qualitative operations.

Future Scenarios

The Houthis are likely to pursue a response that goes beyond their routine operations to maintain deterrence balance. This response may include intensifying their missile and drone attacks. On the other hand, Israel may continue its “targeted hunting” strategy to strike prominent leaders intermittently, aiming to politically and psychologically exhaust the group without being drawn into a wide-scale confrontation.

Internally, the operation will test the Houthis’ ability to manage the political vacuum and preserve the cohesion of their alliances. Maintaining full control of the government through loyal figures may marginalize the General People’s Congress Party, while a new power-sharing formula could help contain the fallout of the operation.

Conclusion

The Israeli operation in Sanaa marks a notable shift in the trajectory of confrontation with the Houthis, transitioning from targeting traditional military infrastructure to striking a civilian center that symbolizes their political authority. This lends the event a political and propaganda dimension that transcends its immediate military impact. The shift reveals Israel’s intent to send a strong deterrent message and achieve a symbolic victory in the public sphere—even at the cost of escalating and expanding the scope of the conflict.

Conversely, the Houthis may interpret the strike as further justification for escalation and enhancing their armament capabilities, prompting them to respond in ways that demonstrate that they are still capable of initiative and influence. In the short term, the group will likely seek to assert its field and political presence through impactful operations. In the long term, the persistence of such strikes may contribute to reshaping the power dynamics within Yemen and its surroundings, confronting the Houthis with new challenges that transcend the bounds of conventional battles.