“The US intervention in the region is not merely a military strike, it represents a strategic shift aimed at bolstering Israeli and American influence, while strategically diverting attention to secondary fronts like Yemen and Syria.”

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 Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

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In a big development, the United States, led by President Donald Trump, launched on March 15 intensified aerial and maritime strikes against locations affiliated with the Houthis in Yemen, including targets in Sanaa, Saada, Hodeidah, Dhamar, AlـJawf, and AlـBayda.

These strikes, which are considered the biggest since the beginning of the US operations against the Iranـbacked group in January 2023, come as part of a campaign that, according to Washington, aims to deter the Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and destroy their military arsenal. However, with the ongoing escalation, questions mount about the effectiveness of these strikes in light of the entanglement of regional developments and the rigidity of the Houthi stance.

Despite the statements by the US administration that these strikes aim to reـimpose deterrence and punish the Houthi militia, field indications reveal that the Houthis haven’t shown any signs of a retreat. On the contrary, they have escalated their political and military discourse and announced targeting of the US aircraft carrier ’Harry Truman‘ deployed in the Red Sea, four times by using drones and winged cruise missiles.

Furthermore, on March 18, the group announced it had fired a ballistic missile toward Israel for the first time since the January Gaza ceasefire agreement.

Amidst this backdrop, Iran has been playing a pivotal role in this scenario. Therefore, Washington sent direct warning messages to Tehran holding it responsible for the ongoing escalation. Despite the Iranian attempt to mitigate the situation through diplomatic channels that disavowed the Houthi actions, US President Trump said that Iran is behind every shot fired by the Houthis.

Pressure on Iran

Yemen affairs expert Fernando Carvajal believes that the aim behind the US strikes on the Houthis goes beyond protecting the international navigation, and is meant for pressuring Iran which supports the group to serve as its proxy in the region.

Carvajal told ’South24 Center‘: “The new strikes against the Houthis appear outside the framework of Operation Prosperity Guardian. The US administration’s statements read more like part of Trump's ‘Maximum Pressure’ policy toward Iran.”

He added: “The Houthis have not caused the extent of damage they claim to have. The US administration knows they can use the Houthis to pressure Iran. Tehran has lost the Hamas and Hezbollah as its primary actors within the Axis of Resistance, and now only has the Iraq militia and the Houthis left.”

Carvajal pointed out that “Trump cannot pressure Iraq at the moment, so he is playing the Houthi card.”

Yemeni political analyst Abdulsattar AlـShamiri agreed that the latest incidents and the US campaign go beyond the local scope into a wider global context.

AlـShamiri told ’South24 Center‘: “The US intervention in the region isn’t a normal strike, but rather reshapes a new strategy of enhancing the Israeli and American power while keeping the focus on secondary files such as Yemen and Syria. This is part of tackling the global crises, such as the UkrainianـRussian conflict, to pave the way for moving to China and holding it accountable.”

He believes that the antiـHouthi campaign is “part of a new American strategy to rearrange priorities and boost influence in the region and the world”.

The Houthi Plight

On March 18, the group announced the funeral of 10 of their military officials in Sanaa amid escalation of the US airstrikes.

The Houthiـcontrolled Saba news agency reported that the officers were killed during the recent military operations without giving details of the time or the place of their death. It only mentioned that they died during ‘The Battle of the Promised Conquest and Sacred Jihad’, the term used by the Houthis to refer to their military and maritime operations and the subsequent US airstrikes. 

American and Yemeni estimates indicate that the Houthi military infrastructure was largely damaged as a result of the latest US strikes, including losing important leaders. 

Despite the group’s clear plight and the huge difference in their military power, the Houthis stress that they will continue their maritime operations against Israel and the American forces in the region. They demanded renewing the ceasefire in Gaza and allowing entry of aid as preconditions to stop their operations against Israel. They have also demanded the cessation of the US strikes to stop their counter attacks.

Regarding the Houthi confrontation and manoeuvring ability, Carvajal said: “A new report by the ’Conflict Armament Research‘ (CAR) shows that the Houthis have access to new technology for making drones and missiles, but the report is unclear about the quantity and supply sustainability. However, they do not appear to pose a major threat to the US military assets without Iran’s ghost spy ships along the Red Sea.”

He explained: “Iran can't afford the US targeting these spy vessels and may have to reduce the Houthi threats in order to de-escalate the conflict with the Trump administration. Nonetheless, the Houthis are facing major challenges to address the implications of the US strikes as they need to fight three war fronts at once.”

On the international level, the American expert pointed to “the Houthi keenness for sustaining their global image in support of the Palestinian issue. This may push them to continue their symbolic attacks against vessels in the Red Sea to enhance their political discourse. On the regional level, they may escalate threats against Saudi Arabia in order to force an agreement on their demands for salaries and legitimacy. If the Houthis are pressured by US forces or perceive any pressure from Yemeni rivals, they could renew cross border strikes against Riyadh.”

Carvajal also said that “the Houthis are facing financial constraints that is impacting their patronage network with tribes, which could in turn affect recruitment and military mobilization. The FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organization) designation of the Houthis will impact their access to cash and increase pressure along the smuggling routes for funding their military operations.”

The American expert believes that “these factors may weaken the Houthis’ ability to maintain their areas of influence inside Yemen. This will further complicate their military and political stance during the incoming period.”

Possible Scenarios 

Yemeni military expert Brigadier General Thabet Hussein Saleh determines two possible paths for the next stage regarding the US military campaign against the Houthis and the group's response. He told ’South24 Center‘: “The first scenario is represented in the continuation of the US strikes to weaken the Houthi military capabilities and probably eliminate the group. The second scenario is the Houthi surrender to the American conditions.” 

He added: “In both cases, I believe the United States will be victorious, whether through the use of direct military force, or by achieving its goals without resorting to full-scale escalation.” 

The military expert talked about the US goals in this campaign, foremost of which is “forcing the Houthis to stop their attacks against maritime navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This is in addition to weakening their military capabilities significantly to reduce their ability to effectively serve as an Iranian proxy, and delivering a clear message to Tehran in this regard”. 

According to Brigadier General Thabet Hussien, “the US administration doesn’t likely have an agenda to change the military map in Yemen directly. However, this map can change automatically, whether in the case of eliminating the Houthis or weakening their capabilities”. 

He stressed that “if this happens, the Internationally-Recognized Government will have the advantage if it has the political will to resume fighting and liberate North Yemen's governorates from the Houthis”. 

Carvajal hoped that the American pressure on Iran will succeed in restoring the political path of the Yemeni crisis. He added: “Iran could hold the Houthis from escalating, in order to preserve weapons supplies and appear to hand Trump a carrot and delay major decisions for the time being. The Houthis are targeted primarily to pressure Iran.”

He concluded: “If the US succeeds in pressuring Iran and forces the Houthis to de-escalate, it will provide Saudi Arabia with leverage to re-engage the Houthis and force a new deal to support the UN's Road Map.”

In light of these developments, future scenarios fluctuate between continued military escalation and de-escalation attempts. The US is apparently determined to strike the Houthis, even as the latter are sticking to their tough position. The Iranian-Houthi alliance or their affiliation relationship as described by the US and the Yemeni government are under a real test. 

Regionally, the Saudi and Emirati positions are decisive in determining the features of the next phase. If the American pressure succeeds in reducing the Houthi military capabilities, this may reshape the military map in Yemen, giving the Internationally-Recognized Government the opportunity to consolidate its position and move forward toward strategic choices.

These developments can't be separated from what happens in Gaza as the Houthis draw a link between their operations and the Israeli war there. If ceasefire is renewed and aid is allowed in, the Houthis may announce a halt to their maritime operations, leading to the suspension of the US campaign. This scenario will confirm that this campaign is linked to short-term tactical goals.