It is clear that the Houthis in the North and the Southerners will never reconcile and govern a united country.

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Karen Dabrowska (South24 Center)

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Houthi attacks on the Red Sea have frozen efforts to reach a peace deal in Yemen and there is little prospect of peace talks resuming. The powerless, dysfunctional Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) cannot rule the areas not under Houthi control and the independence of the South may be the only solution for the country’s intractable problems.

Tensions eased with a UN-mediated ceasefire announced on April 1, 2022. More than one year after its announcement and seven months after its official expiration, the truce continued to deliver. Yemenis were benefiting from commercial flights; fuel and commercial ships were entering via Hodeidah port and hostility levels were significantly lower.

On April 7, 2022 Yemen’s Interim President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi transferred his powers to an eight-member PLC which was sworn in on April 17 in Aden. Its members were from the North and South of the country and it was designed to present a united front for the country’s anti-Houthi forces.

But the Houthis bypassed the PLC and engaged in negotiations with Saudi Arabia, when Riyadh sought an exit from the stalemated war. The two sides said they had achieved positive results to revive the expired ceasefire and the Houthi-Saudi talks were part of broader efforts to find a political settlement to the conflict.

Peace efforts have been hampered since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in October last year and the Houthis started attacking ships in the Red Sea with devastating effect. According to a report from the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Houthi campaign has led to a 90 percent decline in shipping activity through the Red Sea and shows little signs of decreasing even though two US aircraft carriers are now deployed in the region.

According to the IMF’s PortWatch – daily trade through the Suez Canal has reduced from an average of 4.8 million metric tons, at the end of September 2023, to just 1.3 million metric tons at the end of September 2024. The Houthis’ blockade has reduced traffic in the Red Sea by 75% and bankrupted Israel’s port of Eilat.

Two years into its formation the PLC still has not effectively addressed critical problems facing the country: a dire economic situation, an enduring Houthi threat, and escalating military tensions in the Red Sea. In particular, the PLC’s obvious inability to prevent the Houthis from attacking maritime traffic in the Red Sea signifies its profound ineffectiveness, raising concerns about whether it can fulfil its mandate of governing the Yemeni polity. One of the main reasons for the PLC’s dysfunction, rests in the divergent approaches and lack of harmony between its main backers, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) which supports the PLC and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The STC seeks the reestablishment of an independent Southern State which existed from 1967-1990 when North and South united. This is hindering unified leadership and decision-making within the council and perpetuates its state of paralysis.

Due to disagreements and exchanges of fire between the STC’s and the PLC’s armed brigades, PLC members spent long periods in Saudi Arabia. In fact, disagreements between council members have become so acrimonious that the council has become incapable of holding regular meetings. It has not even brought the illusion of coordination to the anti-Houthi camp. Since its formation, divisions within this camp have deepened, and negotiations with the Houthis have been conducted separately and directly by the Saudis, completely ignoring the council’s existence. Furthermore, the council has failed to improve living standards or reform state institutions. Corruption remains rampant, and appointments continue to be based on regional affiliations and cronyism.

The final nail in the PLC’s coffin was the defection of two of its members to the STC (in May 2023). The relationship between the STC and PLC has devolved into an unchecked rivalry, as the former calls for an independent Southern State in a direct challenge to the latter’s authority. Yemen’s top executive political body has become paralyzed by severe divisions that will likely lead to its disintegration.

Even though it still supports a united Yemen the West’s disillusionment with the PLC is increasing. Al Mayadeen English reported on 18th September that the United States offered to recognise the Houthis’ legitimate authority over the entire country if they cease their attacks in support of the Palestinians in Gaza. The Houthis refused. To secure its perceived economic interests America in particular and the West in general could easily abandon the people of the South.

Yemen has now turned into a variety of micro-states ruling portions of Yemeni territory. In the South the STC is a powerful political force in Aden, Abyan, Dhalea and Lahj – but it cannot be described as a coherent Southern leadership with powerful local leaders in Hadramout and Al-Mahra. Hadramout has its own national council. 

On September 26, STC President Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, was at the UN General Assembly and held talks with the USA and Britain, but the STC still lacks full endorsement from any permanent member of the UN Security Council. Gaining broader international recognition is critical to the group’s quest to eventually achieve Southern independence. But the UNSC is still dreaming about a united Yemen, and this unrealistic expectation is about as useful as a chocolate sun god for the Southern cause. 

Russia did once support the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (as South Yemen was known till 1990) and could play its card as a sponsor of a Southern republic, but Putin is heavily bogged down in Ukraine making Yemen a low priority for the Kremlin.

It is clear that the Houthis in the North and the Southerners will never reconcile and govern a united country. A fundamentalist Islamic regime cannot enter into a working partnership with Southern movements inspired by a socialist ideology and democratic principles. It is unlikely that the international community will support an independent Southern State, so a unilateral declaration of independence looks like the only way forward.

If the Southerners do not unite behind a cohesive Southern leadership and take a radical decisive step to help the country emerge from the quagmire in which it finds itself, the Yemenis could become a forgotten people fighting a forever war.