Amid this political chaos, the solution may exist but its keys are scattered among parties that are more skilled at the waiting game than the art of concession.

Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

Over the last few weeks, Riyadh witnessed a series of intensified political meetings related to Yemeni affairs between officials affiliated with the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and ambassadors of a number of states. Other meetings were held between Saudi and American officials. This has raised questions about the nature of the current international efforts and moves regarding Yemen, especially in light of the accelerating regional developments and their effects on the Yemeni crisis. The UN-Saudi roadmap for Yemen that was declared in December 2023 has been frozen due to the Houthi engagement in a military escalation against international navigation.

A Political Process?

On November 26, Saudi newspaper ’Alsharq Alawsat‘ reported that meetings between Yemeni, American, and Saudi officials “focused on regional and international de-escalation efforts, supporting the Yemeni economy, and launching a UN-sponsored comprehensive political process.”

The newspaper pointed to the meeting between PLC Chairman Rashad Al-Alimi and his deputy Othman Majali on one hand and the US Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking and the US Ambassador to Yemen Steven Fagin. It added that “Lenderking informed the Yemeni leadership about the latest diplomatic efforts for de-escalation and the preparations to launch a comprehensive political process, supervised by the UN”.

However, Fagin, in his statements to the same newspaper, didn’t refer to any political process. He said that his meeting with Al-Alimi “focused on the economy and reducing Houthi escalation”. He added: “We conducted a productive dialogue about the important efforts to support the Yemeni economy and limit the Houthi escalation, while the terrorist group continues to endanger regional peace and security”.

The newspaper quoted Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed Al Jaber as saying that he discussed “during a productive meeting with Lenderking and Fagin about the developments of the situation in Yemen and the Red Sea as well as the joint efforts to support the Yemeni government and people amid the backdrop of the current economic and humanitarian conditions. As well as how to support the UN envoy’s efforts to maintain de-escalation and reach a comprehensive political solution in Yemen”.

During some UNSC briefings, the UN Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg pointed to the risk of the war returning to the country, and expressed his concerns about a full collapse of the de-escalation that has continued even after the official expiration of the humanitarian truce in Yemen in October 2022 without renewing it. Grundberg admitted that his mediation task has been more complicated due to the regional crisis resulting from the Gaza war and its extensions.

Technically, the circumstances aren't apparently proper for achieving progress in the political path of the Yemeni crisis in the wake of the growing regional and international complications over the past year due to the Houthi involvement in the activities of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” against Israel, its attacks on international shipping, and American naval vessels. Accordingly, one shouldn't rule out links between the ongoing political activities in Riyadh to goals and arrangements beyond the direct Yemeni framework.

The meetings in Riyadh held by PLC Vice President Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, who serves as President of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), are an important indication about the latest international trends on Yemen. These include the meetings held by Al-Zubaidi on November 20 and 21 with the ambassadors of Spain, Russia, France, and Australia. 

On his ‘X’ account, Al-Zubaidi said: “Our meetings revolved around the ongoing Houthi escalation in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden as well as its dimensions and ramifications locally, regionally, and internationally, in addition to what should be done toward this unprecedented terrorist escalation. During my meetings with the honorable ambassadors, I underscored that confronting terrorist and extremist groups will be only achieved by adopting a firm and decisive stance, according to a comprehensive deterrence strategy”.

On November 24, Al-Zubaidi said that he discussed with Head of the European Union Delegation to Yemen Gabriel Munuera Vinals and the ambassador of Netherlands Jeannette Seppen and of Germany Hubert Jager the importance of joint efforts to restore stability to the region and ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden. 

On November 16, Al-Zubaidi met with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Representative of the President of Russia for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov. He said that they “discussed the challenges resulting from the Houthi escalation in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden, as well as the threats their attacks pose to food security in the country alongside the damage to maritime security and global trade.”

On November 18, Commander of the Joint Forces Lieutenant General Fahd bin Hamad Al-Salman, who was appointed in August 2024, met with Al-Zubaidi as part of meetings with other PLC members.

Al-Zubaidi said: “The meeting discussed the latest military and security developments in our country and how to enhance joint efforts to confront challenges that threaten the security and stability of the region in general”.

These meetings coincide with the Houthi warnings about the return of war in Yemen pushed by the US and a military mobilization by the Iran-backed militia in Hodeidah governorate on the western coast of Yemen.

Experts draw a link between the indications of the actual return of war in Yemen and the internal sentiment to do so as a result of the deadlock in the peace process and the tragic economic situation in areas controlled by the legitimate government. They also link these to the international desire to see blows delivered to Iran’s agents and allies in the region such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian Bashar Al-Assad regime. 

On November 13 in Riyadh, Grundberg met with the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed Al Jaber, Lieutenant General Fahd Bin Hamad Al-Salman, and international figures including the ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. His office said in a statement that “the discussions focused on the need for de-escalation and a unified commitment to promoting an inclusive, Yemeni-led peace process.”

Drawing Future Contours

Researcher in the Sanaa Center For Strategic Studies Hussam Radman believes that “The Yemeni, regional, and international arena is witnessing a state of uncertainty. This is pushing major regional and international states, especially the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, to hold a series of talks and meetings with an aim to draw the contours of the next phase in Yemen”. 

He also told ’South24 Center‘: “These discussions revolve around three main axes, the first of which is the return to the political path which is the favorite option for Riyadh, as it believes that resuming the implementation of the roadmap is the natural solution to end the crisis. The second path is managing the conflict which is favored by Washington with an aim to achieving stability in Yemen without engaging in a comprehensive war. The third is the military resolve which is the preferred one for Abu Dhabi and its allies who believe that the military solution is the only way to eliminate the Houthis”.

“However, Washington won’t be in a hurry to return to the political path, fearing it may play into the hands of Iran and the Houthis. Moreover, Riyadh won’t adopt this option unless it feels that the new US administration will seek to hold it responsible for the failure of the war in Yemen”, according to Radman.

Yemeni politician Khaled Baqlan believes that “the political efforts in Riyadh basically aim to gain time and prolong the Yemeni crisis”. He told ’South24 Center‘: “These discussions come amid the growing regional tensions and the escalation of the Houthi attacks which have weakened the confidence in the possibility of reaching a political solution”.

Baqlan added that some regional parties seek to exploit the Yemeni crisis for making personal political gains, stressing that such factors complicate the negotiation process and delay reaching a permanent solution.

Sanaa-based political analyst Rashid Al-Haddad told ’South24 Center‘ that “the moves in Riyadh are led by the STC which seeks to redirect the course of events in Aden. Saudi Arabia hasn’t responded to the Bin Mubarak government's demands in Aden which seeks to save the deteriorating economic situation in the Southern governorates. The economy suffers from huge deficits and decreasing foreign reserves. This increases the international pressure on the government”.

Al-Haddad believes that any economic support from the international community will be conditional to implementing certain steps related to the peace process. He explained: “It is important for the stakeholders to sign the previous deals that were agreed upon last year. Despite there being no official contact between Riyadh and Sanaa around these issues, Saudi Arabia has shown bigger commitment to the previous deals, especially amid the regional tensions”.

Al-Haddad claimed that “Saudi Arabia also proposed an initiative to resume the production of oil in return for paying the salaries of the state employees. This reflects a positive possibility that depends on Riyadh’s intentions. This reveals a Saudi desire to conduct a big deal with Sanaa”.

Al-Haddad's perspectives about the STC are apparently consistent with statements by the Houthi Deputy Foreign Minister Hussin Alezzi, who posted on ‘X’: “Sanaa and Riyadh have made significant progress on the road to peace. They demonstrate a joint determination to achieve this noble goal. Therefore, they won’t allow any sub-party within the coalition to continue obstructing this path”.

On November 28, the Houthi Leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi accused the US of blocking an agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. In a video, he said: “The Americans are exerting continuous pressure at the political level. They have prevented an agreement with Saudi to stop the aggression”.

The accusations came after visits by Lenderking to Muscat, Amman, and Riyadh on November 24 and 25.

On December 8, Grundberg told AFP that “the warring parties and the Yemeni people can’t wait forever for a roadmap to peace before the country slides again to war”. 

He explained that “It's not possible to move forward with the roadmap right now, because I don't think that the implementation of that roadmap would be possible”, adding that “Yemen has become an integral part of regional destabilization through the attacks in the Red Sea”. According to him, the ongoing escalation will effectively put the peace effort on hold. 

Between the will of the people and the political necessities, Yemen stands today on the verge of difficult choices as noted by observers. The region is anticipating a new scene amid major regional transformations. The political moves in Riyadh are apparently a reflection of a hidden competition between forces seeking to formulate the future according to their own agendas. Meanwhile, the Yemeni crisis is a real test for the world’s ability to rebuild what has been destroyed by wars. So, will Yemen witness the creation of a new consensus or remain a hostage to equations that only know the language of power?

It can be said that the Riyadh meetings are a repeated test for the resilience ability of the parties in the face of the winds of regional change. Meanwhile, ongoing escalation on the ground apparently makes any settlement doomed to early failure. With multiple alliances and conflicted interests, time is becoming a decisive factor: Will it play into finding a political solution or serve as a sword prolonging the conflict? Amid this political chaos, the solution may exist but its keys are scattered among parties that are more skilled at the waiting game than the art of concession.