Will «Ahmed Ali Afash» Come Back to the Forefront in Yemen?

On July 30, the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee removed the late Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh (known also as Afash) and his son Ahmed Ali from its sanctions list, ending measures imposed on them nearly a decade ago alongside senior Houthi officials.

A statement published on the UN website confirmed the removal of the entries for both Ali Abdullah Saleh and his son Ahmed from the sanctions list established under Resolution 2140 by the Security Council Sanctions Committee.

In a post on X, Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) member Tariq Saleh, the nephew of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, expressed his gratitude: "I extend my thanks for all the efforts made by the PLC and the support of our brothers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE” to remove the sanctions from his uncle and cousin.

According to Al-Jumhuriya TV, affiliated with Tariq Saleh, the Security Council's decision to lift the sanctions came after the expiration of the deadline for objecting to a request submitted by Yemen's representative to the Security Council, Abdullah Al-Saadi.

In April 2015, the UN Security Council sanctioned Ali Abdullah Saleh and his son Ahmed, along with senior Houthi officials including Abdul Khaliq al-Houthi and Abdullah al-Hakim, for their involvement in fueling the war and supporting the Houthi coup. The sanctions included freezing financial assets and a travel ban.

In April 2013, then-Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi removed Ahmed Ali from his position as commander of the Republican Guard and appointed him as Yemen's ambassador to the UAE.

Hadi dismissed him from this position in March 2015, following the Saudi-led Coalition's ‘Operation Decisive Storm’ in Yemen, which targeted Houthi forces and Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Although Ahmed Ali has remained in the UAE since then, the Republican Guard forces that were under his command actively participated alongside the Houthis in the 2015 invasion of South Yemen.

Ali Abdullah Saleh and members of his family played a pivotal role in enhancing the Houthi control over North Yemen as they headed various security and military units in the country.  

However, in December 2017, Ali Abdullah Saleh was killed by Houthi militants in Sanaa after a dispute with the group.

This pushed Ali Abdullah Saleh’s family to flee to Aden, including Tariq Saleh who now fights the Houthis on the western coast. Tariq has made the Red Sea port city of Mokha his headquarters in order to gather together the members of the Republican Guard and the army elements affiliated with him.

Removing the UN sanctions raises questions about the nature of Ahmed Saleh’s incoming role and if he will again engage in political work, benefiting from accessing the massive financial assets that had been frozen. Saleh’s rivals from the Houthis and the Islah Party claim that the assets near $60 billion.

Southern political expert Nasr Al-Esayi said the possible reason behind removing the sanctions imposed on Ali Abdullah Saleh and his son Ahmed is that they no longer pose a direct threat. He told ’South24 Center‘: “The death of Saleh and Ahmed’s absence from the political arena are factors that contributed to this decision.”

According to him “The internal pressure also played an important role as it pushed some parties in the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), especially leaders of the former General People's Congress, for removing the sanctions.”

Mohammed Al-Faqih, a Yemeni writer who has close ties with Ahmed Afash, has praised the removal of sanctions, though he says “it has come late”. He added: “The sanctions were basically illegal and were just part of a political intrigue.”

So far, the General People's Congress in Sanaa, led by Sadeq Abu Ras, ostensibly maintains an alliance with the Houthis despite the killing of President Saleh by the militia. It also recognizes Ahmed as the Deputy Head of the party. This isn’t the only irony for Ahmed as he himself hasn’t adopted a clear stance toward the Houthis.

Even in his latest statement on Saturday (Aug 3) after the lifting of sanctions, Ahmed avoided referring to the Houthis or identifying a clear position toward them. He just sent fluid and loose messages which don’t determine the nature of his incoming activities. However, they reflect a state of stillness and unassailability that reveal his choice to remain in the same corner he has resorted to for years.

The belief that Ahmed Afash lacks ambition and has a weak personality isn’t something new as this was mentioned by a WikiLeaks document that goes back to 2007 and talks about the candidates to succeed Ali Abdullah Saleh to rule Yemen.

However, Mohammed Al-Faqih has a different opinion. He told ‘South24 Centre’ that Ahmed’s statement on his release “was a thank you speech and didn’t aim to inspire any military and political sentiments. It also carried peace messages since the country is heading to peace.”

Nonetheless, the concept of peace may not be the same for Ahmed Afash. In his speech on May 21, 2023, during the 33rd anniversary of the Yemeni unity, he sent strongly-worded messages in favor of the forced Yemeni unity that has been rejected by Southerners. He had said then: “The Yemeni people will only support maintaining this historical achievement and defending it as well as thwarting all attempts at division, fragmentation, alienation, and sowing discord and rifts.”

However, Al-Faqih defended this speech saying that “Ahmed is the son of the unity maker and it is natural for him to adopt this stance permanently. Do the advocates of separation believe that the ambassador’s speech supports their efforts? This is impossible.” Nonetheless, Al-Faqih admits that the South issue is “a reality that should be solved in a way which serves everyone”.

Nasr Al-Esayi puts the radical speeches of the Northern politicians regarding the unity, including Ahmed Afash’s one, within the frame of a “desperate response to the failure that they experience, and as an attempt to evade responsibility toward the people in the North”.

He believes that it is time for serious thinking of the future of Yemen and building a real partnership between North and South, based on mutual respect and equality. He added that “the utmost priority now should be treating the devastating humanitarian crisis suffered by the Yemeni people”.

“A peaceful and fair solution is the only way to achieve stability and development in Yemen. The political leaders in North and South Yemen should take their historical responsibility and work together for building a better future for Yemen and its people,” he explained. 

In fact, there are no big obstacles for Ahmed Afash’s return to the political arena, even within the Yemeni legitimate government, just as his uncle, Tariq Saleh, did and became a PLC member. Moreover, he may be the proper man to compete with the Houthis in Sanaa and threaten their authority. 

Popular demonstrations in Sanaa on the anniversary of the September 26 Revolution in 2023 were part of his popularity there.

However, it is unlikely for him to succeed in what his father failed to do although the latter was described as “the dancer on the heads of the snakes in Yemen”.

Furthermore, Ahmed’s chances in North Yemen have become smaller after what appeared as provocative measures carried out by the Houthis last September. These included announcing “the drastic change phase” and deposing the government of Abdulaziz Bin Habtour, a leader in the Congress Party who has been asked to serve as a caretaker government till choosing of a new one.

This has practically destroyed the remnants of the nominal partnership between the Houthis and the Congress Party and tightened the militia’s grip on Sanaa and North Yemen. However, Ahmed Afash’s slim chances in North Yemen may be a motive behind the attempt to make up for it in South Yemen whose people maintain a strong legacy of hatred toward the former Yemeni president and his son.

On July 22, local media sites circulated a photo in the city of Seiyun, featuring a banner that included a photo of Ahmed Afash along with Tariq Afash. A local source speaking to ’South24 Center‘ confirmed its authenticity even as it has stirred controversy among Southern activists.

Over the past years, Tariq Afash has repeatedly angered the Southern Transitional Council (STC) due to activities carried out by “the Political Office of the National Resistance in Shabwa”. This was considered as an attempt to restore influence in South Yemen and disturbing the compass that should instead be directed toward Sanaa.

Regarding any possible political role for Ahmed, Al-Esayi said: “There is no doubt that he has a limited popularity base in the North, inherited by his father. However, the situation in South is completely different from the North.”

He added: “South Yemen indicates a deep desire to restore the state and an independent national identity. This doesn’t necessarily mean complete rejection of any interaction with North but there are red lines that can’t be crossed. The Southern people reject any interference in the South’s internal affairs and believe that the Northern political parties are part of the problem, not the solution.”

He explained: “The reasons behind this rejection are deep and have historical roots. The Southern people believe that the Yemeni unity has failed in achieving their aspirations and has marginalized them. Thus, any attempt to reproduce the same political pattern will be met with strong resistance.”

He added: “It is important to realize that the Southern issue isn’t a mere power struggle but is a struggle on identity and rights. Any sustainable political solution in Yemen should take into consideration this fact -providing the Southern people the right to determine its fate.”

In this regard, Al-Faqih said: “It is too early to talk about any incoming political role for Ahmed Ali. However, as a Yemeni and a former politician and military man, he has the right to practice his role entirely”. He pointed out that the picture will be clear soon.

On August 5, the December 2 Agency said that Ahmed Afash met with the US Ambassador in Yemen Steven Fagin who expressed his congratulations on the removal of sanctions against Ahmed and his father and discussed with him the future of Yemen amid the current regional and international developments. This is in addition to discussing the effort to find a political solution for the Yemeni crisis, according to the agency.