The worsening hunger crisis in South Yemen is hard to separate from the broader economic context which is undergoing an unprecedented collapse. Moreover, the performance of the Yemeni government makes it part of the problem, not the solution. 

Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24 Center) 

As the Yemeni crisis enters its eleventh year, growing field indications reflect the fragility of the humanitarian situation in South Yemen’s governorates controlled by the Yemeni Internationally-Recognized Government. A new UN report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and UNICEF highlights a sharp increase in the food insecurity levels, warning that large segments of the population are approaching actual famine conditions. 

According to the report issued on June 22, nearly half of the population in South Yemen is exposed to dangerous levels of food insecurity, ranging between “crisis” (Phase 3) and “emergency” (Phase 4). This points to a growing structural failure in food supply chains, a total collapse of purchasing power, and poor institutional response. 

These developments are attributed to a combination of overlapping factors, prominent of which are: acute economic contraction, the continued deterioration in the Yemeni rial's exchange rate, the absence of clear and effective financial policies, and divisions within the management of relevant state institutions. Climate change has also contributed to the increased pressure on livelihoods, especially in the rural areas dependent on agriculture. 

In contrast, the government's response appears limited in impact due to the weak public resources and a decline in the level of coordination with the local and international actors. Furthermore, the UN Humanitarian Response Plan this year is facing a big funding gap, which threatens to exacerbate the negative effects on the most vulnerable groups. 

The Danger Indications 

Data from the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), on which the joint UN report is based, reveals the features of an escalating crisis threatening food security in South Yemen. It is estimated that from May-August 2025, nearly 4.95 million people in South Yemen governorates will face critical levels of food insecurity or worse, falling within IPC Phase 3 (crisis) and Phase 4 (emergency). 

Among these, 1.5 million are classified as belonging to Phase 4, meaning they are just one step away from famine (Phase 5). This development puts South Yemen at the brink of a very dangerous humanitarian scenario, if urgent and sustainable food aid is not delivered. 

According to the report, these figures reflect an increase of 370,000 people compared to the previous period, indicating a clear acceleration in the pace of food insecurity over the past few months. This upward trend is expected to continue, as the UN agencies have warned that the number could rise to 5.38 million by February 2026, representing more than half of the population in South Yemen’s governorates.

The report does not only highlight the general situation but also focuses on specific groups at the heart of the crisis, most notably children under the age of five, and pregnant and lactating women.

In a statement, UNICEF Representative in Yemen, Peter Hawkins, said, "Approximately 2.4 million children under the age of five and 1.5 million pregnant and lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition."

These numbers, according to UN estimates, indicate not just food shortage, but also point to generations at risk of stunted growth, the spread of diseases, and a lack of opportunities for healthy physical and cognitive development. Chronic malnutrition among these groups poses a long-term threat to human development in South Yemen and increases the future cost of health response efforts.

An Economic and Administrative Crisis

It is difficult to separate the worsening hunger crisis in South Yemen from the broader economic context which is undergoing an unprecedented collapse. The deterioration of the Yemeni rial, which has surpassed 2,700 rials to the US dollar, compared to 215 rials before the outbreak of war, has resulted in an almost complete erosion of purchasing power, especially given that the local markets rely heavily on imported goods.

This sharp drop in currency value has directly impacted the prices of basic commodities. According to the World Food Programme, the cost of a basic food basket has increased by 28% compared to last year.

This reality is not the result of a lack of economic policies but rather a direct consequence of the mismanagement and inconsistency in policy implementation, according to economic experts who spoke to ‘South24 Center’.

Dr. Mohammed Jamal Al-Shuaibi, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Aden, said: "The lack of political stability since 2015 has led to the fragmentation of the state’s financial institutions, especially the Central Bank, and created a duality in monetary authorities, which has hindered the implementation of any unified economic policy."

He added that the war environment, combined with the absence of good governance and a sense of responsibility, have created a fertile ground for the growth of corruption and poor public administration. He noted that "the lack of transparency has limited the ability of fiscal and monetary policies to perform their intended role."

This assessment aligns with the views of Professor Abdulqawi Al-Sulh, Head of the Economic and Services Department in the General Secretariat of the Southern Transitional Council’s Presidium, who blamed successive governments for the economic collapse.

Speaking to ’South24 Center‘, Al-Sulh explained that the roots of this failure go back to what he described as "a heavy legacy of governments that have continued the policies of marginalization and discrimination against South Yemen”. 

Regarding financial planning, Al-Sulh explained that since 2014, governments have operated without approving general budgets, relying instead on unplanned, ill-considered spending schemes that neglect vital sectors.

He added: "The government has failed to maintain the Aden Refinery or develop the electricity, water, and health sectors. Instead, funds and aid have been squandered generously on an inflated diplomatic corps, two illegitimate legislative bodies (the Parliament and Shura Council), on officials residing abroad, and massive government travel delegations that outnumber those of wealthy and stable countries."

While the government claims a scarcity of resources, Al-Sulh pointed out that the actual sovereign revenue collection does not exceed 5% of the legally targeted amount. This is due to the tax and customs exemptions granted to major traders from the Northern governorates, exacerbating the financial gap, he pointed out.

On June 29, in a belated move, Prime Minister Salem Bin Brik gave instructions for the preparation of a plan to restart the Aden Refinery to meet local market needs for oil derivatives and support the national economy. However, observers believe that given the deep structural challenges, this step is insufficient unless accompanied by broader institutional reforms.

Monetary Policy Missteps

On the monetary policy front, Al-Sulh criticized the Central Bank of Aden’s decision to fully float the currency, calling it "a fatal blow to the Yemeni rial", noting that it opened the door to speculation and stripped the market of any predictability.

This view is supported by Dr. Al-Shuaibi, who said that successive Central Bank administrations have failed to contain the currency’s decline. In fact, he argued that some of their decisions have worsened the situation. He explained that "the adoption of an inflationary financing policy through currency printing, lack of Central Bank independence, and interference from external authorities have weakened the effectiveness of available monetary policy tools."

Al-Sulh pointed out that the Central Bank printed nearly 3.5 trillion rials in recent years, most of which went to major traders and was pumped into the Aden currency market without regulation, contributing to the price hikes of essential goods, and leading to a deeper economic decline.

He also noted that foreign currency inflows from expatriates haven't been used effectively. He stressed that daily transfers from Aden to the Northern governorates continue, describing this as a continuing drain of foreign exchange.

These policies, according to Al-Sulh, align with a "deliberate starvation strategy" that has pushed large segments of the middle class into extreme poverty. He added that the government has moved the salary budget from Chapter One (Wages) to Chapter Four (Grants).

Meanwhile, Dr. Al-Shuaibi emphasized that salary suspensions across many sectors have had a direct impact on the worsening of food insecurity, noting that current fiscal and monetary policies are operating in isolation from each other, leading to contradictory and ineffective outcomes.

Limited Government Response

In the face of a worsening humanitarian crisis, the response from the Yemeni Internationally-Recognized Government appears insufficient to match the scale of the challenges. While UN agencies continue to warn of rising food insecurity in South Yemen, the government plans lack strategic depth and institutional effectiveness, according to several local officials and experts.

In an attempt to clarify the government’s stance, Deputy Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, Mansour Zaid Haidrah, told ’South24 Center‘ that the government is exerting efforts to coordinate the humanitarian response despite the difficulties.

He said: "The government is making great efforts to coordinate the humanitarian response despite severe challenges." He emphasized that the Ministry of Planning plays a central role in coordinating with the Ministry of Agriculture and international partners to set priorities.

However, Haidrah explained that the current government plan to address the food crisis still requires effective external support to be implemented. He added: "This plan needs international support to activate it, especially in light of the lack of government resources."

Regarding the working mechanism, he noted that the Ministry of Planning receives needs assessments from local planning offices in the governorates and sectoral ministries, which are then submitted to the donor agencies. He explained that the process doesn't rely on "comprehensive traditional plans" but rather on what he described as "identification of urgent needs and priorities”. He noted that most international organizations currently focus on emergency humanitarian response while providing limited support for long-term development projects.

However, this centralized coordination approach has drawn sharp criticism from local actors, particularly Southern entities, who argue that the government excludes them from the planning and implementation mechanisms.

In this context, lawyer Niran Souqi, Head of the STC's Relief and Humanitarian Affairs Authority, said that there is a "complete disconnect" between the authority and the government due to what she described as the politicization of humanitarian work. She told ‘South24 Center’ that "the government doesn't engage with us because we are affiliated with the STC, although humanitarian work shouldn't be politicized."

She added that the authority has independent and more effective mechanisms to assess needs that are not reliant on government or UN data, but rather on "direct field visits, conducting accurate surveys, and qualitative analysis", which ensures that aid reaches those most in need with transparency.

Despite the lack of coordination with the government, Souqi confirmed that the authority maintains working relations with some international organizations, such as the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). However, she emphasized that excluding local actors from planning and coordination efforts weakens the overall humanitarian response.

According to her, “excluding local entities from humanitarian coordination worsens the response gap", explaining that the lack of local engagement has led to a poor understanding of local contexts, reducing the effectiveness of aid.

Decline in International Funding

Yemen’s 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan is facing a severe funding crisis, coinciding with the escalating needs in South Yemen’s governorates and the increasing food insecurity levels. According to UN data, only 8% of the plan's funding had been secured by the end of June, reflecting a significant drop in donor commitments compared to previous years.

Haidrah confirmed this, saying that "The decline is real and evident", attributing it to several factors, most notably the general shortfall in donor contributions to humanitarian organizations and the overlap of the Yemeni crisis with other global crises, leading to dispersed support.

He pointed out that this funding shortage will have direct consequences on the scale of programs that can be implemented in affected governorates, particularly those suffering from fragile basic services and infrastructure.

Lawyer Niran Souqi agreed with this assessment, stating that the response of international organizations is "highly dependent on the availability of funding, which has been impacted by earlier decisions such as the suspension of U.S. aid."

She also noted that international partners face additional challenges beyond the funding shortages, including safe access to certain areas. She stressed that their exclusive coordination with the government could negatively impact the effectiveness of aid reaching the most vulnerable populations, especially given the marginalization of active local entities.

Proposed Solutions

The contributors to this report proposed a set of necessary reforms that could lay the groundwork for improving the response at the domestic level.

Professor Abdulqawi Al-Sulh believes the starting point should be monetary policy reforms through "revoking the full floating of the Yemeni rial, rationalizing spending, and reforming the revenue collection system". He considers these steps as essential entry points for any genuine economic recovery.

He added that any effective local response requires "radical reforms of local authorities in South Yemen", through strengthening institutional oversight and reducing corruption. He noted that talking about comprehensive social protection programs under the current conditions has become "a form of luxury”, and that top priority should be given to restructuring salaries and securing a minimum standard of living.

For his part, Dr. Mohammed Jamal Al-Shuaibi believes that Southern local authorities have a limited but realistic opportunity to implement a relatively independent economic response, provided they exercise real authority over managing the local resources and utilizing the available expertise.

At the international level, Haidrah emphasized that overcoming the crisis requires collective action, beginning with the government recognizing its responsibilities, and also requires that donors give genuine priority South Yemen’s governorates in their food and development aid programs.

According to him, “Amid the absence of political consensus and effective accountability mechanisms, as well as deep divisions that hinder humanitarian work, the chances of overcoming the crisis depend on the will to pursue practical reforms, not just issuing repeated appeals."

As time passes without an effective response, UN agencies warn that the alarming indicators documented currently could soon turn into inevitable tragic outcomes. As stated in the UN report, repeated warnings will not avert a catastrophe unless they are translated into real on-the-ground action.