"Political expert Dr. Omar Baabad described the decisions as “symbolic moves” that lack time schedules and clear implementation mechanisms. He warned that the failure to fulfill promises may deepen the internal divisions."

Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

On January 7, the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) announced a comprehensive strategy aiming to achieve stability in Hadramout in South Yemen in response to the escalating tensions and the urgent demands of its people. According to Saba news agency, this declaration was based on the discussions conducted during the PLC’s two sessions on November 22 and December 24 which addressed the exceptional conditions in the governorate and stressed on the importance of making tangible moves to enhance stability.

Given its strategic significance and vast oil resources, Hadramout constitutes a main axis of the political map in the country. Following the growing tensions since August 8, 2024 when the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy, led by Sheikh Amr Bin Habrish, launched a widespread mobilization campaign, there have been rising urgent popular demands for equal distribution of the resources. The most prominent manifestation of the escalation has been represented in the setting up of armed checkpoints near the vital oil fields in Al-Masila, in a move to pressure the central government. 

In mid July 2024, the Hadramout Inclusive Conference, led also by Bin Habrish, issued a 30-day ultimatum calling for improving the services, solving the electricity crisis, and disclosing the share Hadramout would get from the oil revenues. Though the PLC Chairman Rashad Al-Alimi visited Hadramout on July 27, raising the expectations about an imminent breakthrough, the hopes faded as a new 48-hour ultimatum was issued on July 31 threatening more escalation in case the demands were ignored. 

After the ultimatum expired, Al-Alimi left the governorate on board a Saudi plane on August 4, sparking a new wave of popular anger.

The PLC’s Plan

The PLC’s plan regarding Hadramout includes allocating the revenues from selling the stored crude oil in Dabba and Al-Masila facilities for building two power stations, in the coast and valley of Hadramout. This move aims to bolster the deteriorating power sector in the governorate.

The plan also includes the establishment of a public hospital in Al-Hadaba (Ghayl Bin Yamin district), funded by the revenues of the diesel stock affiliated with PetroMasila company. This is along with a pledge to investigate the corruption allegations against the company to ensure transparency and accountability. 

The plan includes measures to engage Hadrami people in the armed forces and security bodies, as per the legal systems and the national recruitment standards. This is in addition to boosting the management of the local and national revenues in a way that serves the development and reconstruction plans through a partnership with the government as well as regional and international donors.

The PLC stressed that these measures were a result of the extended consultations held within the council in November and December 2024. It underscored the need for cooperation for the success of these steps, which would pave the way for reforms that can reinstate Hadramout's stature as a main driver of development and peace. 

Local Reactions 

The Local Authority in Hadramout welcomed the plan, describing it as a “responsible and historical move” toward achieving stability in the governorate and improving the livelihood conditions.

The statement stressed the commitment of the Local Authority to cooperate with all political and social factions to carry out the initiatives effectively. Furthermore, the Local Authority hailed the contributions of PetroMasila in the governorate. However, it stressed the importance of transparency and accountability. 

In a cautious statement, the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy (HTC) adopted a positive stance toward the plan, describing it as a move toward achieving people's demands. Its spokesperson Al-Kaash Saeed Al-Saeedi announced the holding of a meeting that will include tribal sheikhs as well as political and community figures to study the situation and discuss the announced measures. 

The Saudi-funded Hadramout National Council hailed the PLC's efforts. It stressed full support for the plan and the readiness to cooperate with the Local Authority and all entities to guarantee implementing it in a way that leads to sustainable development and enhances national partnership. 

Feasibility 

Despite the announced plan, political analyst Anwar Al-Tamimi said that the PLC's response wasn't quick enough. He pointed out that the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy raised the ceiling of its demands to gain more popular sympathy. According to him, this further complicates the scene.

Al-Tamimi told ’South24 Center‘ that “the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy submitted demands for which it has mobilized its armed elements in the oil-rich Al-Hadaba. The warning reached the level of imposing self-rule, establishing military entities, and appointing a military leader”. 

Al-Tamimi said that these demands are totally different from those submitted earlier by the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy to the Yemeni government and the Arab Coalition. He added: “Over the past months, events have escalated unexpectedly. This has raised the confederacy's ceiling of demands with an aim to gain popular support that bolsters its mobilization capabilities”.

He explained: “This constitutes a dilemma at least theoretically. The PLC's measures cater to demands different from those for which the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy mobilized its fighters”. 

He asked: “Will its armed elements accept withdrawal despite not gaining the demands for which they have mobilized and escalated? Will they withdraw after the regional interferences, polarizations and alignments that some tried to pass off under this banner? “

Saeed Khaled, Head of the STC's Office in Hadramout, expressed his concerns that the declared measures are just a tool to delay the essential demands such as driving the First Military District forces (affiliated to the Islah Party) out of Wadi Hadramout and deploying the Hadrami Elite forces across the governorate. 

Khaled told ’South24 Center‘: “The council's current decisions are just the beginning. However, we fear that they may turn into a pretext to maintain the status quo.” 

Political expert Dr. Omar Baabad described the decisions as “symbolic moves” that lack time schedules and clear implementation mechanisms. He warned that the failure to fulfill promises may deepen the internal divisions. Baabad told ’South24 Center‘ that “in case of the continuing failure to implement the promises, the Hadrami social fabric may be subjected to more rifts”. 

He pointed out that “the regional interventions seek to consolidate their position through fueling the internal crises”, and called for the “establishment of a neutral oversight committee including impartial local cadres to follow up the implementation operation”. 

Security and Military Developments

Prior to the PLC’s announcement about the plan regarding Hadramout, there were indications about security and military escalation. On January 3, a military convoy affiliated with the Hadrami Elite forces arrived at oil facilities in Al-Masila to enhance security. This was followed by the arrival of additional enhancements to the Hamraa camp, west of Mukalla, on January 5.

These moves come amid growing security tensions as activists circulated reports about artillery shelling from the sea against tribal positions affiliated with the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy. However, the commanders of the Second Military District denied the validity of these allegations.

HTC spokesperson Al-Kaash Saeed Al-Saeedi told ’South24 Center‘: “Regarding the latest skirmishes, the shelling actually occurred. However, the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy behaved in a rational way to avoid dragging Hadramout into conflict. The Hadrami forces support our demands related to the governorate.” 

He added: “We rationally deal with these developments as we know the danger of sliding into endless internal confrontations. We don’t level baseless accusations but demand a comprehensive investigation to reveal the parties responsible for destabilizing security.”

Commenting on the PLC’s announcement, Sheikh Al-Saeedi said: “If things are delayed, we will remain stationed till our demands materialize on the ground. We await the implementation of the official decisions and stress on the importance of turning these demands into practical moves.”

He disclosed to ’South24 Center‘ the efforts to establish military forces “across Hadramout” affiliated with the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy over the coming period. On December 25, the Hadramout Tribes Confederacy’s Facebook page published a decision note issued by the alliance’s chairman to establish the Hadramout Protect Forces, headed by Major General Mubarak Ahmed Al-Obthani. 

Baabad believes that “there are parties that seek to use the local demands to achieve their own interest”. He added that “these interventions complicate the stability efforts” and that “stability in Hadramout won’t be attained without alienating the external influences and establishing true self administration”.

Baabad recommended the establishment of an economic, social, and legal council that will include Hadrami technocrats to supervise the development and reform projects. He stressed the importance of appointing impartial and efficient local leaders to manage the administrative and security affairs.

According to him, building Hadramout should be a real development project and depend on investing in its resources and human capabilities. ”The plans should be backed by real political will to ensure the continuation of the implementation without obstacles,” he stressed.

He concluded by saying: “Hadramis won’t enjoy stability without their demands being met and excluding the central policies that ignore their rights.”

In light of these events, the PLC’s strategy regarding Hadramout appears to be a serious attempt to contain the crisis, but it remains incomplete unless the real demands of the people of the governorate are addressed, foremost of which is driving out the forces of the First Military District and improvement of the services and economic conditions.

Recently, the PLC announced a new leadership of the First Military District in Hadramout. However, there are doubts about the feasibility of this move in addressing the problem of these forces who mostly consist of Northern soldiers. A survey conducted by ’South24 Center‘ highlighted these local doubts.