The Missing Tribal Role in War on «Terrorism» in Yemen

Over the past decades, the tribal Areas in a number of the Yemeni governorates have served as AQAP’s bastions. This is due to their being outside the influence of the central authorities. Moreover, this has created problems for the counterterrorism efforts. This has also created an opportunity for AQAP to recruit tribal elements. The group succeeded in bringing a large number of tribal people into its ranks. By tracing the identities of AQAP elements, it can be said that most of them belong to tribal areas. Sometimes, AQAP’s influence within tribes has been stronger than the tribe itself like what happened in Radda in the Al-Bayda governorate. The group was able to penetrate the tribe through the Al-Dhahab family which has big tribal influence within its areas. To a lesser degree than Qefa in Radaa, AQAP used the tribal nature of Wadi Obeida in Marib to enhance its presence. The Obeida tribes participated in blocking any military campaign on Wadi Obeida as they refused to allow official forces entering their territories. The tribal objective behind this is not necessarily defending AQAP like what happened in 2009 when the tribes prevented a security campaign to chase "terrorist" elements. [1]

For this reason, AQAP considers any campaign against such regions as an attempt to “break the nose” of the tribe. The group has repeatedly used this expression. This was clear in the AQAP video released in 2009 about the Marib campaign. [2] It can be said that the tribal status in North Yemen and South Yemen has been one of the most key factors for AQAP’s survival in this country. It is important to indicate that we talk here about the status of the tribe as a community component when the central government has no authority on the tribal areas. We do not mean here the tribe itself. Changing this status has been the responsibility of the consecutive authorities. This had to be implemented prior to the counterterrorism operation. However, this was not the case as terrorism in many phases has turned into a card for gaining Western financial and political support. This was clear during the era of late President Ali Abdullah Saleh. 

Although many studies and reports consider the tribal areas in Yemen as being popular incubators for AQAP, they are not actually like that. As we previously mentioned, it can be accurately said that the tribal status is the actual incubator. The proof for this is shown in the automatic shift in AQAP's status within the tribal areas when the latter's status changes. This was evident in some areas in Shabwa such as Al-Said District which was one of AQAP's most important bastions over the past two decades. However, the establishment of official forces in 2016 "The Shabwani Elite", whose elements belong to Shabwa, forced the group to exit it. The tribes did not play any role to defend AQAP or prevent the Shabwani forces from entering and deploying within their areas. If AQAP had not returned after the 2019 battles, led by the Islah Party in Abyan, Shabwa and Aden governorates, the situation would have remained the same since 2016. 

To prevent exploiting this new status, AQAP has resorted to encouraging the tribes at one time and intimidating them at another. However, the group has fully realized that what it deems as an "incubator" is not actually so. Recently, the group sent more than one message to the Yemeni tribes [3] some of them carry threats against any tribal elements who cooperate to counter AQAP. In addition to its realization that it does not have a popular incubator in the tribal areas, AQAP has realized that the role of tribes in the war against it can be decisive. Therefore, it resorted to the threat language which it has rarely used against tribes. Thus, it seeks to justify those threats by presenting the other party as being part of a foreign project agenda that aims to undermine Islam and those who defend it. This was clearly evident in the words of AQAP leader Abu Ali Al-Hadrami [4] which was recorded and released after the forces affiliated with the Islah party were expelled from Shabwa's capital city Ataq, months ago. Likewise, such an approach was remarkable in the latest words of its leader Khaled Batarfi. He expressed his dismay towards the stance adopted by tribal figures and Sheikhs. This confirms that tribes did not and will not serve as AQAP’s incubator if their status changes.