"The Houthis’ insistence on engaging in regional escalation, and the Southerners’ reservations regarding the roadmap between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, pose serious challenges to the path of a sustainable settlement."

Abdullah Al-Shadli, Ranjana Narayan

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At a time when uncertainty continues to hover over the region, especially following the intense Israel-Iran conflict, the hopes that had rekindled about finding a path forward to the Yemeni crisis – due to the relative period of de-escalation being witnessed – have again dissipated in the wake of the latest Houthi escalation in the Red Sea.  

Prior to the violent attack by the Houthis on two Liberian-flagged commercial vessels in the Red Sea that led to their sinking earlier this week, questions were being raised about whether the relative de-escalation in Yemen could help break the political stalemate that has overshadowed the scene for nearly two years.  

Earlier, the Houthi escalation in the Red Sea targeting international navigation, along with reciprocal attacks between the Iran-backed Yemeni militia on one side, and the United States, Britain, and Israel on the other, had caused a direct disruption to the political negotiations over Yemen that the United Nations had made significant strides in shaping, through a roadmap that was approaching consensus at the end of 2023. However, the eruption of the situation in Gaza and the subsequent regional escalation overturned most mediation efforts and reshuffled the priorities of regional and international actors—causing the Yemeni file to disappear from the table of active initiatives. 

Over the past few months, there had been a relative shift in the escalation equation, with Houthi maritime attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea ceasing at the beginning of the current year, coinciding with a near-halt to the Western airstrikes since the beginning of May 2025. Concurrently, mediation efforts led by Egypt and Qatar are active in formulating a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, with clear American support. 

This political climate had brought back essential questions about the future of the political track in Yemen: Can this regional de-escalation represent a realistic opportunity to revive the political process? Or is it merely a temporary truce that will be exhausted without being capitalized upon?  

Within Yemen, the main parties were busy trying to leverage the relative calm according to their own calculations. The UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, resumed his visits to the region, while the Southern Transitional Council (STC) intensified its diplomatic moves from Riyadh. On the other hand, the Houthi group moved towards diplomatic escalation, demanding Yemen's seat at the United Nations and attacking the US’ role in “obstructing“ the roadmap. 

Indicators of Resumed Political Activity  

Prior to the latest attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, there were attempts by some parties to reactivate the stalled negotiation process.  

Among the most prominent indicators was the visit of UN Envoy Hans Grundberg to the capital Aden on July 1–2. During his meeting with the Yemeni Prime Minister Salem bin Buraik, Grundberg emphasized on the need to form an inclusive negotiation delegation representing the Yemeni parties to participate in the upcoming talks. He also stressed the urgency of immediate economic measures to address the deteriorating living conditions. 

In parallel, intensified diplomatic efforts were made by Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, President of the Southern Transitional Council and Vice President of the Presidential Leadership Council, from his residence in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. He met with a number of ambassadors and representatives of international powers, including the United States, Britain, France, India, Australia, South Korea, the European Union, and the Secretariat General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). 

Throughout these meetings, Al-Zubaidi focused on three main pillars: supporting peace efforts, strengthening economic stability, and implementing comprehensive reforms within state institutions. He also reiterated the Southern Transitional Council’s position of “refusing to engage in any negotiations with groups classified as terrorist”—a clear reference to the Houthis. While this reflects a firm stance, it raises questions about the likelihood of being able to forge a comprehensive negotiating framework that accommodates these red lines. 

The Houthi group also sought a surprising diplomatic escalation. On July 2, the group’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent an official letter to the President of the UN Security Council, requesting that the group be granted Yemen’s seat at the United Nations and that its representatives participate in the monthly briefings presented by the UN Envoy on the Yemen file. 

The letter accused Washington of exerting pressure on Saudi Arabia to prevent the signing of the roadmap, and stressed that any political solution should be “free from external dictates”. 

While some observers hold the regional escalation phase, which began in October 2023, as a primary reason for freezing of the political track of the Yemeni crisis, others see it as having perhaps created opportunities for the political process today. 

Among those is British expert Andrew Hammond, who believes that the impact of American strikes on the Houthis was not fleeting, but rather contributed to “weakening the Houthis’ position and made them more susceptible to political pressure”. 

The UN Roadmap 

While some consider the UN roadmap as a still-valid basis for negotiation, others believe it has been overtaken by the recent developments, underscoring the need for a comprehensive reassessment of its feasibility and ability to respond to the changing realities. 

Among the voices defending the roadmap is Sanaa-based political analyst Rashid Al-Haddad, who considers the document “still valid and applicable, and even one of the most important achievements that resulted from lengthy consultations.” Al-Haddad confirmed in his statement to ‘South24 Center’ that “its priority in addressing urgent humanitarian issues is the entry point to building trust between local parties”, noting that building upon humanitarian aspects could pave the way for broader political solutions. 

On the other hand, Abdulaziz Al-Aqab, President of the organization 'Fikr for Dialogue and Freedoms’, offers a middle-ground view. He acknowledges that the roadmap “still forms a basis for a common understanding that can be built upon”, but emphasizes that it is in “dire need of renewal and development to include a clear framework, as well as governing, executive, and guarantee mechanisms”. 

In his statement to ‘South24 Center ‘, Al-Aqab warned that “the ceiling of the Houthis’ demands is likely to rise” in light of the absence of a governing framework. 

He added that overcoming this challenge requires peace sponsors to address shortcomings in the previous mechanisms and provide genuine support for Yemeni-led negotiations based on sound principles. He stressed that any settlement will not succeed without being accompanied by tangible measures regarding services, salary payments, and building trust among the parties. 

However, political analyst Nasr Al-Eisai from the South presented a more skeptical view of the roadmap’s validity. He argues that it was “formulated in a context that no longer exists, and the new reality with its complexities requires a different and more realistic political approach”. 

Al-Eisai warned against “repeating past mistakes”, telling ‘South24 Center’ that the “recent Yemeni experience confirms that every dialogue or agreement turned into a prelude to a new war”, since past dialogues—according to him—“were limited to recycling power without addressing the deep-rooted causes of conflict, particularly the failure of Yemeni unity”. 

He emphasized that any true political breakthrough requires “realism and inclusiveness, and recognition of the on-ground transformations”, and added that “ignoring key actors under formal justifications weakens the chances of reaching a sustainable agreement”. 

Andrew Hammond, on the other hand, linked the success of any roadmap to the effectiveness of the Saudi pressure on the Houthis. He noted that “Riyadh wants to push them into talks, and if Iran becomes less capable of providing them with weapons, this gives Riyadh greater leverage over them.” 

Despite his cautious optimism, Hammond warned “all the international community wants is for Yemen to stop being a regional security problem”. He added: “Much depends on Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump. Netanyahu seeks to attract Trump into more attacks on Iran, and that is his top priority. Yemen and the Houthis come a distant second.” 

Tensions Persist on the Ground 

Despite the regional de-escalation and hopes for an end to the Gaza war—which formed the core of the wider escalation in the region, Yemen has continued to see hostile actions. 

On July 3, pro-government Yemeni forces announced they had repelled a Houthi attack east of Taiz city. The Taiz Axis also accused the Houthis of launching a drone attack targeting a fuel station in the city, killing a civilian and injuring 22 others. 

However, in a major escalation, on Sunday (July 6), the Houthis launched an attack on a Liberian-flagged commercial vessel ‘Magic Seas’ in the Red Sea. The Houthis first hailed the ship via VHF radio, demanding it to slow and stop. When the crew refused, explosions struck the ship’s midsection, likely from unmanned surface vessels or drone boats used by the Houthis. A propaganda video released later showed masked Houthi militia storming the ship and planting explosives that ultimately sank the ship. The 22-member crew, including 17 Filipinos, a Romanian, a Vietnamese, and three Sri Lankan security guards, abandoned the vessel and were rescued by a UAE-operated ship.  

A day later, the Houthis struck again, attacking the ‘Eternity C’, a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea. The assault, which sank the Greek-owned ship on Wednesday (July 9), led to the deaths of at least four sailors, while the Houthis ‘kidnapped’ many of the crew.  

The attack on ‘Eternity C’ is one of the deadliest maritime incidents in the Red Sea in recent years. The US Embassy in Yemen demanded the immediate and unconditional safe release of the crew by the Houthis. “The Houthis continue to show the world why the United States was right to label them a terrorist organization,” the US statement added. The Houthis claimed the ships were targeted due to past port calls in Israel. 

Simultaneously, the Houthis announced on July 6 that they had launched a ballistic hypersonic missile of the type ‘Palestine 2’ targeting Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. The group had previously declared, on July 1, the execution of four military operations—including one with the ‘Palestine 2’ missile to strike Ben Gurion Airport, and three drone strikes on what they described as sensitive Israeli sites. 

In light of these developments, it can be said that the Houthis’ insistence on engaging in regional escalation, and the Southerners’ reservations regarding the roadmap between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, pose serious challenges to the path of a sustainable settlement.