(South24 Center)

A political webinar, attended by Western geostrategic experts, warned of the strengthening of Houthis’ dominance in North Yemen amid the absence of a clear and effective US strategy to deter the group, and the declining ability of the Internationally-Recognized Government to regain control. The webinar called for a realistic approach to the changes on the ground, and advocated for enhancing the role of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) as a de facto power in South Yemen in light of the stalled prospect of the "united Yemen" project. 

The webinar, organized by ’South24 Center‘, in partnership with the American Center for South Yemen Studies (ACSYS) on May 29, was titled ’Challenges to Stability in South Yemen: Economic Crisis, Political Rivalries and Houthi Threats‘.

The speakers included the following experts:

1. Dr. Thomas Juneau: Professor at the University of Ottawa and Fellow at the ’Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies’

2. Adrian Calamel: Researcher at the ’Washington Outsider Center for Information Warfare’.

3. Ari Heistein: Research Fellow at the ’Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security’.

The webinar was moderated by Fernando Carvajal, Executive Director, American Center for South Yemen Studies (ACSYS), via ’Zoom‘, with simultaneous interpretation in Arabic and English.

American Ambiguity and the Houthi fait accompli

At the outset, Dr. Thomas Juneau said that the United States does not appear to have a clear strategic objective in Yemen, adding that the Trump administration has not so far decided whether to deter, defeat or to contain the Houthis. He pointed out that “the language used by the Trump administration lacks any clarity at that level”, which he believes is a crucial point in understanding the faltering US performance in the Yemeni scene.

Juneau added that despite the escalation of the US airstrikes by the Trump administration compared to under Joe Biden, they haven’t been effective enough, especially in the absence of a viable local partner capable of achieving military balance on the ground. He explained that: “Airstrikes alone are not enough. The Internationally Recognized Government remains far too weak to pose a serious military challenge to the Houthis”, especially amid the continuing divisions among the anti-Houthi forces.

According to him, the US airstrikes without the presence of local partners capable of capitalizing on them have turned the declared strategy to a mere incomplete deterrence operation. He added that “some elements of the deterrence/containment strategy are in place, but they are not enough”. He emphasized that the pace of the latest US airstrikes has not led to any real deterrence against the Houthis who, according to him, “have a high ability to endure pain and are willing to pay a heavy price to achieve what they want”. In this regard, Juneau said that the latest ceasefire agreement between the Trump administration and the Houthis reflects Washington’s lack of political will to escalate the confrontation. This has given the Houthis the confirmation that the US is not serious about carrying out a deterrence campaign or causing a comprehensive defeat, he added.

He concluded that what is happening is “a de facto acceptance of the Houthi control” and “an implicit admission that the Houthis have won the war and that the US will coexist with them”. According to Juneau, this unspoken coexistence sets the stage for a new scene of Houthi dominance in Yemen, which extends beyond the national borders toward more assertive regional roles.

Dr. Juneau stressed that this has direct implications for South Yemen. He explained that in case the international acceptance of the Houthi dominance on North Yemen becomes entrenched, then “the Southern Transitional Council (STC), along with other actors in South Yemen, will emerge as a de facto force, even if not officially recognized”, especially in light of the continued weakness of the legitimate government.

He also pointed to the official American stance, which continues to adhere to the narrative of “unified Yemen”, and questioned whether this position is “sustainable in the future”, amid the rapidly shifting dynamics on the ground.

European Shortcomings

For his part, Adrian Calamel provided a critical analysis of the European countries’ stance on the Yemeni crisis, describing their interventions as “reactionary” and ineffective, in the face of the escalating threats posed by the Houthis against regional security. He cited the ’Safer oil tanker‘ experience as an example of the reluctant European involvement, driven more from “realizing the maritime threat”, rather than from a strategic vision to address the root cause of the Yemeni crisis.

Calamel stressed that the European role, including that of the UK in some military operations, closely resembles "the role of the United Nations to monitor and report, nothing more". He said it is limited to issuing condemnation statements and repeated calls for peace efforts, without any real momentum on the ground that can make a difference.

Assessing the American approach, Calamel agreed with Juneau’s observation about the lack of vision. He added: “If you can tell me what the American strategy is, I can tell you if it is working.” He stressed that the current scenario suggests that there is no clear strategy, on whether to deter the Houthis or contain them.

Regarding the situation in South Yemen, Calamel noted that the “STC is the only cohesive group upon which a confrontation strategy can be built”. According to him, the Houthi threat should not be viewed in isolation from the activities of the other extremist groups in the region, including the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) which poses a renewed threat to South Yemen in a way that further complicates the security scene in the Southern governorates. 

Giving a comparative historical perspective, Calamel noted that before the Arab Spring, Yemen was viewed by the international community as a marginal issue, while they focused on the bigger crises in Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon. He recalled the Houthi takeover of Sanaa in 2014 as evidence about the difficulty of reversing the military realities, and asserted that “you can’t win a war from the air alone”.

Calamel concluded by noting that the escalating military nature of the conflict weakens the role of the Europeans and opens the door for regional forces such as Iran to expand their influence through armed proxies, primarily the Houthis. He noted that the current conflict transcends Yemen and that the international community no longer possesses the effective tools for pressure or resolution.

Regional Context, Israel, and the Houthis

Ari Heistein provided an Israeli perspective to the crisis. He focused on the shift of the Houthi role since the October 7, 2023 attacks, which the group has taken full advantage of for enhancing their self-legitimacy and raising their profile within the so-called ’Axis of Resistance‘.

Heistein pointed out that prior to this phase, the Houthis had been facing rare internal protests, including a strike by teachers, supported by some branches of the General People's Congress. This had put them in a vulnerable position. However, the regional developments have provided them with space to expand their influence.

According to Heistein, the Houthis’ rise coincides with the decline in the role of Iran’s traditional allies, such as the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. This has opened the space for the Houthis to emerge as the most energetic and aggressive actor in the confrontation with Israel. He cited the sequence of attacks, from drone attacks targeting Eilat, to missile strikes targeting Haifa and other northern areas.

He emphasized that “Israel has no real strategic interest in Yemen beyond the desire to neutralize the Houthi threat”. He believes that this threat has become more urgent as a result of a narrative that has begun to be circulated in media and research communities, claiming that the Houthis are invincible.

In his assessment of Saudi Arabia’s failure to rein in the Houthis, Heistein attributed it to the Saudi army’s limited capability to carry out precision strikes or absorb the Houthi responses. According to him, in contrast Israel has more sophisticated capability and won’t be able to withdraw from the battle as the United States did. He believes that Israel “will have to continue till the end”.

However, Heistein called on Israel to adapt its strategy with the interests of the Yemeni people. According to him, there is an “objective convergence of interests" between the two sides, as both want to end Houthi control.

The biggest challenge, according to Heistein, is that the Houthis appear to be a rising offensive power while the Yemeni government remains weak and incapable of launching a ground operation. Moreover, the Southern Forces, despite their capabilities, suffer from restrictions imposed by their supporting parties that “don’t allow them to actually succeed”. He concluded that this situation may lead to unexpected shifts in the relationship between regional allies and local actors.