Yemen stands at the crossroads with the coming weeks determining whether the US designation of the Houthis is just a punitive measure or a step within a more comprehensive strategy.

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Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

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In a new punitive measure announced on January 22, the United States designated the Iran-backed Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). This reflects a shift in Washington’s strategy towards the Houthis following the inauguration of Donald Trump as President for a second term.

The FTO decision was expected due to the unprecedented attacks by the Houthis against commercial ships and US troops in the Red Sea since October 2023. However, the decision has major implications on the path of the Yemeni crisis, especially the political one.

The US decision coincides with reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi announcement about suspending their operations against vessels, except for the Israeli ones. Prior to that, the Houthis repeatedly targeted ships heading to Israel or passing through Israeli ports, in addition to British and American vessels.

The US’ ’FTO‘ re-designation of the Houthis has dashed hopes of restoring momentum toward the Saudi roadmap on Yemen that was announced by the UN envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg in December 2023. It has gone into cold storage because of the regional circumstances, along with the previous deep-seated problems which are difficult to resolve. 

How will the US designation impact the roadmap and the political path of the Yemeni crisis? 

The End of the Roadmap

Hours before the US designation of the Houthis, President of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and Member of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) Aidrous Al-Zubaidi said, in a televised statement on the sidelines of the Davos economic conference, that “the roadmap regarding Yemen has ended”.

He pointed out that the Houthi attacks against international navigation have changed the scene completely. Al-Zubaidi added: “We are waiting for Trump to classify the Houthis as a first-class terrorist entity.” This is what the new US President has done. 

However, the US’ re-designation of the Houthis and the latter’s involvement in targeting international shipping are not the only problems plaguing the roadmap, according to Fernando Carvajal, who served on the UN Security Council Panel of Experts on Yemen.

Carvajal told ’South24 Center‘: “The roadmap never remains on track because the Houthis always change the terms and goals. Following the last visit to Sanaa by the UN Envoy, the Houthis received a new opportunity to restructure the terms.”

The American expert believes that “the UN has nothing to offer the Houthis who hold dozens of its staff hostage in prison”. This demonstrates to what extent they exploit the political and diplomatic situation to make more gains.

The STC’s Representative in the United Nations, Samar Ahmed, agrees that the roadmap was already suffering from fundamental problems.

She told ’South24 Center‘: “The roadmap was unlikely to resolve the conflict in Yemen long-term, mainly because it was going to empower the Houthis and grant them financial access to oil revenues — which we have reservations about.”

She added: “The Houthi aggression has disrupted the roadmap, especially their escalations against international shipping. Nevertheless, a revised approach may still be achievable if it recognizes these new realities and shifts away from rewarding or empowering the group.”

Samar Ahmed stressed that “a redefined roadmap should also involve stronger collaboration with the STC, PLC, and regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are vested in securing maritime routes and promoting Yemen’s stability”.

“For us in the STC, reviving the ’Roadmap’ initiative must also address the aspirations of the Southern people, ensuring their representation as key stakeholders,” she said.

However, Southern political analyst Saleh Al-Noud does not rule out the continuation of the peace trajectory and negotiations despite the US’ re-designation of the Houthis. 

Al-Noud told ’South24 Center‘: “The circumstances have largely changed in a way that makes that roadmap inapplicable currently. However, the path of peace and negotiations is still closer to reality although the anti-Houthi war remains an attractive choice to several parties due to its possible outcomes.” 

According to Al-Noud, “the Saudi desire to avoid engaging in any new war against the Houthis makes the military escalation option less probable”. 

Abdulaziz Al-Oqab, Chairman of Fekr Organization for Dialogue and Human Rights, believes that saving the roadmap is possible on condition of “implementing practical and advanced steps by the Houthis and all parties to prove their credibility and good faith”. 

Al-Oqab told ’South24 Center‘: “This includes the Houthis’ releasing UN staff, political prisoners, and detainees as well as committing to previous steps and adopting a practical approach for carrying out humanitarian moves to mitigate suffering”.

A Pressure Tool or a Long-term Strategy? 

While the Biden administration had revoked the ’FTO‘ designation of the Houthis in 2021 under the justification of humanitarian concerns, it hardened its stance last year by labeling the group as a ’Specially Designated Global Terrorist” (SDGT).

However, the ’FTO‘ re-designation of the Houthis is more severe as it gives the United States additional legal tools to sanction any entities or individuals for providing financial or logistic support to the group. Furthermore, the designation enhances international efforts to curb the Iranian influence in Yemen. 

The re-designation is likely part of a larger vision of the Trump administration for the Middle East. This may include again the “maximum pressure” policy against Iran and its allied groups in the region. The regional context indeed encourages such a plan following the huge damage suffered by the Hezbollah due to Israeli strikes along with the downfall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria. 

It appears that the PLC looks at -- or at least hopes for -- the US’ re-designation of the Houthis as a strategic move, and not a temporary one. This was referred to by Aidrous Al-Zubaidi in statements to ’Bloomberg‘ believing that “the FTO re-designation of the Houthis constitutes the beginning of their end”. 

He added that the decision “will further boost the US’ momentum in the region at a time when Iran has become toothless” due to the damage suffered by its agents such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as a result of Israeli strikes. 

According to Samar Ahmed, “the Houthis’ ongoing aggression has undermined the peace process and revealed them to be an unreliable negotiating partner. Following the re-designation of the Houthis as an FTO, the international community should hold the Houthis accountable and recognize the need for alternative solutions, such as assisting the legitimate government of Yemen in taking actions to weaken the Houthis rather than pressuring the government to cease its efforts as they have done in the past”. 

Possible Scenarios

Once the US decision to re-designate the Houthis was announced, the group began taking escalatory steps, including arresting additional UN employees, in a clear sign of defiance of the international will. This move led the UN to announce, on January 24, the suspension of all its travel in Houthi-controlled areas. 

Abdulaziz Al-Oqab believes that the Houthis find themselves at the crossroads as they “either comply with international pressure and accept a political settlement or continue the escalation that may negatively affect the stability of the areas under their control”. 

He added: “History shows that the Houthis have good ability to maneuver between escalation and negotiation which makes it difficult to predict their next move”.

In a statement following the designation, the Houthi Foreign Ministry said that “this decision will only make us more committed to our principled position supporting and backing the brotherly Palestinian people and their just cause”.

Samar Ahmed points to the incoming escalatory scenarios, adding that “The Houthis have a history of constant escalations. They are mobilizing additional fighters to the fronts in Marib, Al-Jawf, Al-Bayda, and Taiz in Northern Yemen. They have intensified their attacks and deployed more fighters to their fronts bordering those held by the Southern armed forces in Al-Dhale, Lahj, Abyan, and Shabwa”.

Samar believes that “a recalibrated approach to the peace process that addresses the unique needs and aspirations of the South can be a viable option to counter the threats posed by Houthi aggression and move forward with resolving the conflict in Yemen.”

For his part, Carvajal said that “the UN has presented no opportunities for optimism in 2025 and Saudi Arabia is against the wall with Trump having taken office.”

He stressed that “Saudi Arabia faces an uphill battle as Trump's aggressive tone toward Iran empowers the Houthis, along with Trump's stronger, overt support for Israel”. This is further complicating the regional equation.

He believes that “Saudi Arabia needs a partner in the UN in order to pressure the Houthis to engage in real and practical talks. However, the UN, across the board, serves as a spoiler when it fails to fall in line with the priorities of Riyadh and PLC. This grants the Houthis more and more opportunities to escalate their rhetoric and actions on the ground” without tangible implications against them.

Regarding possible scenarios, Carvajal said that “the Houthis will use the US sanctions against Houthi officials and the new FTO designation to escalate. Houthis will continue to add prisoners to pressure the UN and NGOs to get favorable terms in any upcoming prisoner exchange.”

According to him “the Houthis will likely use the FTO re-designation to escalate along the Red Sea beyond targeting Israel-linked vessels”.

With all these developments, it can be said that Yemen stands at the crossroads. The coming weeks will determine whether the US designation is just a punitive measure or a step within a more comprehensive strategy. Moreover, there are pressing questions about the ability of the PLC and the Internationally-Recognized Government to respond to these developments.