While manipulating Southern representation through artificial councils is not a new development in Yemeni politics, the role that external powers play in establishing these councils is unprecedented.

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Ala Mohsen (South24 Center)

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Introduction 

Since its inception in 2007, the Hirak movement has played a crucial role in revitalizing and sustaining the independence struggle in South Yemen, transforming individual energies into a fierce political movement. The peaceful movement was successful in mobilizing the masses and gaining wider support of the Southern population, creating significant political momentum for the Southern cause. However, incessant leadership struggles within the decentralized Hirak movement compromised its ability to present itself as a singular front. Despite sharing a common goal, various Hiraki groups and factions were unable to coalesce under a unified leadership or organizational structure. There were also exogenous attempts to perpetuate this state of fragmentation by the Saleh regime and other influential political actors in Yemeni politics. As a result, this factionalization weakened the impact of the movement’s collective action against Northern dominance and created complications in the path for Southern independence.

Misrepresenting the South: A Legacy of Manipulation  

 

Successive Yemeni regimes have long relied on fueling factionalism as a strategic tool to undermine Southern mobilization against their autocratic rule. For instance, as part of his divide and rule tactics, (former President Ali Abdullah) Saleh pitted Southern groups and leaders against each other, exploiting their differences to weaken their dissent and maintain his regime's dominance.  State media amplified past conflicts in the South, such as the 1986 civil war between the Zumrah and Tughmah factions. Such media coverage aimed to stir old animosities and weaken efforts toward Southern unity, especially those represented by Al-Tasaluh wa Al-Tasamuh (reconciliation and forgiveness). Even worse, during the peak of Hirak protests, the Saleh regime enlisted Southern Jihadis to assassinate Hirak leaders, a conspiracy that ultimately led Sheikh Tareq Al-Fadhli to abandon the regime and join the Hirak movement himself.

During the post-2011 transition, while Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi was more amicable toward the Southern issue and the Hirak than his predecessor, he also manipulated the Southern representation to serve his political objectives. For instance, Hadi promoted Abdullah Al-Nakhebi as a representative of the Southern movement, even though he was no longer committed to the Hirak objectives. In the National Dialogue Conference (NDC held in Sanaa from March 2013-Jan 2014), after the Southern team led by Mohammed Ali Ahmed withdrew in protest of the failure to address the Southern issue, Hadi replaced them with a loyalist group led by Yasin Mackawi. This façade of representation gave an illusion of legitimacy to Hadi's regime by appearing to integrate Southern voices into the final outcomes of the NDC.  In reality though, these outcomes were imposed from above, with the Hirak and other groups entirely excluded from contributing to the final NDC document.

Despite efforts to weaken the Southern collective action, the Hirak gained traction over the years. Three pivotal historical moments would even shift the tides in favor of the Hirak and the Southern cause. First of those is the 2011 youth revolution and the shaking of the Saleh regime. In the ensuing crisis between Saleh regime and the Yemeni opposition parties, the latter partnered with the Hirak in their mission to topple Saleh, especially that his legitimacy was the lowest in the South compared to Northern regions. The Houthi expansion into southern territories in March 2015 marked another turning point, as it galvanized widespread support for armed resistance against the invading forces. This escalation not only legitimized armed resistance but also strengthened the call for independence, as many Southerners lost hope in reforming the Yemeni state. The formation of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in May 2017 was another pivotal moment for the South. The STC was successful in bringing together various groups under a single structure, providing a unified platform to advance the Southern independence cause and filling the void in security governance and defense matters. 

Countering the STC Through Artificial Councils 

The STC's formation faced fierce resistance from Yemeni elites who felt threatened by the emergence of a new Southern powerhouse.  Motivated by a zero-sum calculus of gain and loss, the traditional Yemeni elites only saw the risks associated with the rise of the STC without considering the potential benefits of collaborating with a unified Southern entity to address shared challenges. Also, the tendency to treat the STC as a political faction devoid of its deep connection to the Southern movement has brought unnecessary conflict and strife and complicated both the stabilization efforts in liberated areas and the war against the Houthis. However, the fact remains that if the STC abolishes itself tomorrow, the independence movement would persist, driven by the deep-rooted grievances and aspirations of the Southern people.

To counter the STC's position in the South, Yemeni actors, including the Hadi regime, sought to undermine its legitimacy by portraying it as unrepresentative of the broader Southern population. To advance that narrative, they empowered artificial councils and supported alternative groups to undermine the STC's influence. These regionalist councils claim to represent specific governorates, such as the Hadhramaut National Council, the Shabwa National Council, the General Council for the People of Mahra and Socotra, and the Aden Political Council. However, they lack grassroot widespread support, operating primarily as tools to fragment the Southern movement rather than as genuine representatives of their claimed constituencies.

Given their purpose, it is no coincidence that these councils align with the recently announced National Bloc, a coalition of Yemeni parties advocating for a federal state structure. This alignment reflects a coordinated effort to counter the STC claim of representing the entire South Yemeni population. For this reason, the STC released a statement rejecting the outcomes of the National Bloc and emphasizing its commitment to Southern aspirations for independence. It called for adherence to the Riyadh Agreement of 2019 and the preservation of the existing partnerships within the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Thus, we may see a collapse of the power-sharing agreements that constitutes the PLC if efforts to undermine Southern aspirations persist through manipulated representation and deliberate fragmentation. 

External Influences and Pressures  

While manipulating representation through artificial councils is not a new development in Yemeni politics, the role that external powers play in establishing these councils is unprecedented. Previously, deliberate efforts to misrepresent Southern identity were carried out primarily by Yemeni actors. Now, these destructive agendas are also backed by regional powers aiming to expand their political influence through elite-level patronage networks. For instance, Saudi Arabia has shifted its focus toward South Yemen after hopes for liberating the North from Houthi control have waned. The UAE’s active role in the South and its close relationship with the STC has also motivated Riyadh to support other southern groups. Oman, with its own uneasy history with South Yemen during the separatist Dhofar Rebellion (1963-76), has also intensified its efforts to counterbalance both Saudi and Emirati influence by supporting its own networks, especially in Al-Mahra and eastern border areas.

We should be deeply alarmed by these regional interventions. While some may dismiss them as mere balancing acts to secure political influence, these maneuvers are likely to have adverse consequences.  A fragmented political elite does not only complicate Southern independence efforts but also provides a recipe for widespread social conflict, instability and terrorism. Conflict also fractures the social fabric, fueling distrust and hostility between Southern tribes and governorates, which will play directly into the hands of the Houthis. Since 2015, the STC-led Southern forces have been an effective force that has prevented the Houthis from taking over the whole country.  Weakening the STC and the Southern movement that ideologically sustain those forces will not only jeopardize the security and stability of the Southern territories but also reverse the progress made so far to counter Houthi expansionism and Iranian influence in these regions. 

Conclusion 

South Yemen’s growing power and influence in Yemeni politics has made it a source of concern for its rivals. By its very nature, the Southern independence movement seeks to change the status quo and shift the balance of power away from traditional Yemen elites. Therefore, it is expected to see increasing attempts by losing Yemeni parties to weaken social cohesion, exploit internal divisions and disrupt the Southern collective identity. However, Yemen’s Gulf neighbors should distance themselves from these subversive activities. Promoting this divisive agenda is not only shortsighted but will also be strategic folly that will harm their long-term interests. The Southern movement, which has played a pivotal role in countering the Houthi threat in Yemen, must be supported to prevent further territorial and political gains by the Houthis.

At the same time, Southerners bear the responsibility to bolster their own internal cohesion and safeguard their political achievements. The struggle for sovereignty is not limited to high-level politics but also requires stronger social ties at home in order to effectively resist external pressures of fragmentation. Building consensus and preserving the Southern social fabric means prioritizing building national awareness, broadening the Southern coalition, and fostering genuine inclusive dialogue. The STC will also need to immediately address governance loopholes and malpractices, otherwise it will continue to erode its legitimacy and isolate itself from its grassroots. Re-establishing trust between the political elites and the wider population is thus crucial for advancing the South Issue, maintaining stability, and effectively countering both internal and external threats.