The Motives and Background behind the postponement of the Muscat Negotiations

On July 6, just a week after it began, a two-month postponement was declared regarding the UN-sponsored negotiations between the Internationally-Recognized Yemeni Government and the Iran-backed Houthis on exchange of war prisoners and detainees.

According to official information issued by the two parties, the so-called “progress” in negotiations achieved in this file has been especially what is related to the case of prominent Islahi politician Mohammed Qahtan, who has been detained by the Houthis since 2015.

A statement by the Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen (OSESGY) said: “The negotiations led to a significant breakthrough, where the parties reached an understanding on releasing Mohamed Qahtan, a matter that has been contentious for years. They additionally agreed to a follow-up meeting to finalize the names of detainees to be released and arrangements pertaining to the release of Qahtan.”

However, according to some analyses, the ending of negotiations without reaching a prisoner exchange deal and the long gap for resuming talks can be considered as a “failure” of this round to achieve the expected progress. This contradicts the strong optimism voiced by Saudi media platforms before the beginning of the negotiations.

So, why have the Muscat negotiations been postponed? What are the motives and backgrounds behind this?

In an interview with ’South24 Center’, Majed Fadail, the Spokesperson of the Government Delegation in the Muscat Negotiations, blamed the Houthis for what he described as “attempts to thwart and hinder negotiations”. 

He said: “The Houthi delegation worked relentlessly to thwart reaching a deal for exchanging prisoners.”

He added: “The Houthis raised the ceiling, demanding releasing many numbers of their members, most of whom are lost in the fronts or the mountains. This has largely complicated reaching an agreement. Initially, we found that they were dealing positively. However, the humanitarian file was exploited inhumanly through media and political bidding.”

However, Fadail stressed that the “negotiations round witnessed some positive breakthroughs, especially in the case of Mohammed Qahtan, in addition to bringing points of view together in several matters related to detainees and kidnapped persons.” 

Mohammed Qahtan, leader of the Islah party, which is aligned with the Saudi Arabia-backed government, has been held incommunicado by the Houthis since 2015. According to an Asharq Al-Awsat report, the two sides agreed during the negotiations to exchange Mohammed Qahtan for 50 Houthi prisoners.

Fadail pointed out, “It was agreed to hold a supplementary round after two months, on condition that names and lists are exchanged before implementing this.”

The Yemeni government is demanding the release of all detainees under an “all-for-all” principle, and has accused the Iran-backed Houthis of obstructing talks by putting forth selective demands and withholding information about prisoners.

On Wednesday, July 10, Nasser Al-Khobaji, Chairperson of the Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) Political Commission, said that “the Muscat negotiations haven’t achieved success”. He attributed this to “obstructing” the establishment of a joint negotiation delegation affiliated with the Presidential Leadership Council which hasn’t been officially declared so far. This is despite the fact that more than two-and-a-half years have passed since the establishment of the PLC.

When Abdulqader Al-Mortada, the Chairman of the Houthi War Prisoners Delegation, announced on ’X‘ the end of the Muscat negotiations, he didn’t accuse the Yemeni government and only referred to the “narrow time”, that according to him, led to the postponement of the negotiations. 

However, Al-Mortada later criticized the Saudi stance regarding the negotiations in Muscat, adding that Riyadh had rejected releasing members of the Hamas in return for releasing Saudi pilots by the Houthis.

Al-Mortada wasn’t the first one who made the allegation. Before him, the Houthi Leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi in a video speech on July 7, threatened Riyadh with strikes deep into the kingdom and hitting vital facilities including airports, banks, and ports, in response to the Yemeni government’s economic decisions in Aden during June. The decisions include instructions to shift the headquarters of banks as well as the revenues of the Yemenia Airways from Sanaa to Aden.

However, in general, the Houthis haven’t officially talked about the details of the discussions that took place in Muscat regarding the Yemeni war prisoners and they haven't so far responded to the government delegation’s accusations.

An informed source, who is aware of what happened in the Muscat negotiations round, told ’South24 Center‘, on condition of anonymity as he isn’t authorized to speak to media, that the proposal of releasing Hamas elements in return for the Saudi pilots wasn’t on the negotiations table between the government and Houthi delegation. This makes it likely that there are backstage communication channels and negotiations between the group and the Saudis.

So far, there has been no official Saudi stance toward the Houthi war threats or their allegations regarding the aforementioned proposal. Moreover, Riyadh hasn’t commented on the Muscat negotiations in general.

Concurrently with the launch of the Muscat negotiations on June 30, questions began to emerge about the reality of issues that will be discussed and if it would be limited to the war prisoners file. These questions were triggered by what was published by a Saudi newspaper, close to the royal palace, about the humanitarian and economic aspects that would be included in the negotiations.

Furthermore, the timing of the negotiations, which coincided with the Yemeni government’s measures in the banking, aviation, and communication sectors, against the Houthis, has enhanced such speculations.

However, the government and the Houthis stressed at the time that the negotiations would be limited to “war prisoners”. Likewise, UN envoy Hans Grundberg denied, during press statements, any negotiations related to economic affairs. He told ’South24 Center‘ that the negotiations are conducted through UN sponsorship and had achieved progress.

However, the Houthi declaration about proposing an exchange deal between Hamas elements and the Saudi pilots reveals that the negotiations tackled other issues as well, whether through the negotiation table with the government delegation or via other negotiation channels with Saudi Arabia. Remarkably, the US Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking was on a tour to Saudi Arabia and Oman, concurrently while these negotiations were on. Lenderking’s visit was to discuss the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the abduction of diplomats and UN staff in Yemen.

Furthermore, the Houthi’s war threats against Saudi Arabia in response to the Yemen government's pure economic measures indicate that something about this has been already talked about and negotiated.

This assumption is enhanced by the Saudi Foreign Minister's statements, published by the Saudi Hadath Channel, affiliated with Al-Arabia, on July 4. Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan talked about the readiness of the Yemen roadmap that was drafted by Saudi Arabia and Oman following more than two years of talks with the Houthis. This statement preceded Abdulmalik Al-Houthi’s speech.

Likewise, Nasr al Din Amer, Deputy Head of the Houthi Media Commission, spoke about the economic measures against the group. He told ’South24 Center‘ that the group doesn't negotiate with the Yemeni government about these measures at all. He added: “We negotiate with Saudi Arabia that imposed these measures on American instructions to serve the Israeli entity, with an aim to stop our operations supporting Gaza.”

He also said in statements that preceded the latest Houthi stance and their war threats against Saudi Arabia: “The Muscat negotiations is a first step to ease complexities. The roadmap is ready and its implementation is all that remains. This doesn't mean that there are no communications regarding the other files.”

Yesterday (July 12), a senior government source told 'South24 Center' that Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has approved ceasing the implementation of all Central Bank decisions against the Houthis.

This came after an emergency meeting held by the PLC, as reported by the government agency Saba, to discuss a letter sent by the UN Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, asking the PLC to postpone the Central Bank’s recent measures against the six Sanaa-headquartered banks violating its orders until the end of August. Grundberg said in the letter that the Central Bank’s decisions may lead to an escalation that may extend to the military field, and called for a dialogue on the economic file between the Yemeni parties under UN auspices.

The PLC did not officially comment on this news, but government officials and local media confirmed this information.

According to Saba agency, the PLC discussed the Houthis’ threats to resume military escalation and “return the scene to the square of comprehensive war”. The PLC affirmed its adherence to a clear agenda for participating in any “dialogue on the economic file, including resuming oil exports and unifying the national currency...”

Informed sources told 'South24 Center' that Saudi Arabia pressured the PLC to retract its economic decisions after Houthis threatened to resume the war and target economic facilities deep inside Saudi Arabia. A banking source, who requested anonymity, reported last Wednesday that Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak, under Saudi pressure, asked the Governor of the Central Bank, Ahmed Al-Maqbi, not to announce a decision to suspend the licenses of the six violating banks whose headquarters are still in Sanaa. These are Al-Tadhamon Bank, the Yemen Kuwait Bank, the Shamil Bank of Yemen and Bahrain, Al-Amal Microfinance Bank, Al-Kuraimi Islamic Microfinance Bank, and the International Bank of Yemen.

Dozens of Yemeni politicians and activists have warned in publications followed by 'South24 Center' of the negative consequences of freezing or suspending the decisions of the Central Bank of Yemen against the Iranian-backed group, directing harsh criticism at the UN role in the Yemeni crisis.

Reversing the economic measures is likely to spark a possible state of division within the Yemeni government, amid the popular reactions denouncing these developments, according to observers who spoke to ’South24 Center’.

It is likely that the PLC's decisions to suspend the economic measures came under high pressure from Saudi Arabia in light of the Houthis' threat to launch a new war against the Kingdom. Yesterday, the Houthis mobilized tens of thousands of their supporters in Sanaa to threaten the war option.

In April, the Aden-based Central Bank gave the Sanaa-headquartered banks a two-month deadline to transform the center of their operations from Sanaa to Aden. However, the six banks failed to comply with the directions, following which the Central Bank of Yemen in Aden withdrew their licenses.