“The Houthis’ latest big escalation is actually a confirmation that they have decided to move forward with the war option. As for us, war is an option only when it is forced upon us.”

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Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

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On April 2, the Iran-backed Houthi militia carried out an attack against the Southern forces on the Kirsh battlefront in Lahj governorate. The attack, the most violent in two years, killed 11 soldiers and injured 14 others affiliated with the Southern forces, according to a senior military source who spoke to ‘South24 Center’.

The attack is considered the highest level of military escalation by the Houthis against some battlefronts over the past years. Notably, the escalation has the characteristics of war, which has been frozen by the UN-sponsored truce that expired in 2022 and has been followed by a de-escalation phase. The latter is apparently living its last moments amid indications that the war is about to return. 

Since March 1, 2024, nearly 15 soldiers affiliated with the Southern forces have been killed and 15 injured in Houthi attacks on Al-Dhalea and Lahj governorates, according to a survey prepared by ‘South24 Center’, based on correspondents’ reports, military sources, and the Southern forces’ official website (deraalganoob.com).

Date	Scene of the attack	Details	Dead	Injured
March 15	The Mashareeh - Al-Dhalea front	Repelling a Houthi infiltration	1	0
March 17	The Battar strip - Al-Dhalea front	Repelling Houthi attack	1	0
March 18	The Sabirah- Al-Dhalea front	Houthi landmine	2	0
March 18	Al Fakher -Al-Dhalea front	Repelling Houthi infiltration	1	1
March 24	The Maris - Al-Dhalea front	Repelling Houthi infiltration	1	0
March 27	The Bab Ghalq- Al-Dhalea front	Repelling Houthi infiltration	3	0
March 29	The Fakher -Al-Dhalea front	Houthi drone attack	3
March 29	The Maris - Al-Dhalea front	Repelling Houthi infiltration	1
March 29	The Al-Had-Yafa front	Repelling Houthi infiltration	1	0
April 2	The Kirsh-Lahj front	Repelling Houthi infiltration	11	14
A survey of the deadly Houthi attacks against Southern forces between March 1 to April 5, 2024 (South24 Center)

A Declaration of War?

Southern Forces Spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Mohammed Al-Naqib, told ‘South24 Center: “The escalation by the Houthi militia confirms that they are moving toward war and nothing else. In practical terms, the war hasn’t ended. The aggression by the militia has been ongoing even before the expiration of the UN-sponsored truce, which has been respected only by us.”

He added: “Despite these assaults, we have maintained self-restraint and a defensive stance to repel any aggression. The Houthis’ latest big escalation is actually a confirmation that they have decided to move forward with the war option. As for us, war is an option only when it is forced upon us.”

The Houthi Goals

Military expert Colonel Abdulnasser Al-Sanidi told ‘South24 Center’: “There has been a noticeable Houthi escalation toward South Yemen in recent days. The Houthis violate the truce at any time they want, but this escalation is different. I believe that it is part of the Houthi desire to restore the peace talks after (Yemeni) Prime Minister Bin Mubarak declared freezing of the talks due to the Houthi actions in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.”

He added: “The other reason, in my opinion, is the Houthi fear of an escalation in American-British attacks to deter them. This comes along with reports about a possible ground attack by the international coalition on the western coast and Al-Hodeida to weaken the Houthis. This escalation by the Houthis has enabled the militia to test the Southern forces and check their points of strength and weakness.”

Al-Sanidi believes that “the Houthis are searching for an opportunity to make a breakthrough to frustrate the Southern forces and occupy any Southern territory to enhance their military and political position.” He added: “They always seek to create an atmosphere of war in order to whip up the same feeling among their own people with an ulterior motive to reduce the peoples’ demands for payment of salaries and improvement in public services in the areas under their control.”

   

The Southern Forces Spokesperson agreed with the view that the Houthis have political goals behind the escalation which amounts to a war declaration, according to him. He said: “By their escalation, the Houthis are seeking to prove that they are the strongest party, with an aim to undermine the path to peace.”

Related: Will the War in Yemen Return? 

“The Houthis haven't achieved anything on the ground. On the contrary, they have incurred daily losses. We confront their attacks. If we lose one soldier, they lose more and more as an offensive force. This is the equation of wars,” he added.

Houthi leader and Dhamar Governor Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, who was appointed by the group, said that the confrontations with the Southern forces in Al-Dhalea and Kirsh are part of what he described as a “response to the American pressure to test our reaction and the Yemeni people’s”.

The Houthis have repeatedly accused their rivals, especially in South Yemen, of being affiliated with the United States and Israel. They exploit these accusations to justify their military escalation which threatens the de facto truce that has been in place since April 2022. They also aim to recruit fighters to join the militia.

According to a report issued by Saba state agency, the Houthi militia committed 24,697 violations from April 2, 2022 to December 31, 2023. This includes 6,557 human rights violations and 28,271 violations related to the humanitarian truce in 18 governorates.

Al-Bukhaiti wrote on ‘X’: “We won't hesitate to respond to any attack. We will severely hit everyone who stands beside the US, Britain and Israel during their aggression on Yemen, whether by the aggressor states or their mercenaries inside.”

‘South24 Center’ experts said that the Houthis will likely continue to reject the UN-sponsored peace talks unless Saudi Arabia fulfills some of their demands. They added that “the inherent motives that sparked the war in Yemen in 2015 are still in place.”

On March 30, the Houthis announced the issuing of a new 100-riyal coin amid the deterioration of the economic situation in areas under their control. This is considered by Yemeni experts as a dangerous escalation of the conflict.

Related: What has Changed Two Years After the Formation of the PLC in Yemen? 

In the over nine years since the Saudi-led Arab Coalition militarily intervened in Yemen following the Houthi coup against then President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in Sanaa, Yemen has experienced the worst humanitarian disaster in the world, according to the United Nations. The war has killed hundreds and led to the displacement of millions as well as a big deterioration of the economy and services.

Despite the efforts by the UN and regional parties to end the war, the Houthi’s ongoing escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and their attacks on commercial and military ships near Yemen have constituted a new turning point in the conflict in the region. This has complicated the peace efforts and worsened the Yemenis’ economic plight and deteriorated the security situation even further, according to local and international officials.