Where Have Peace Efforts Reached in Yemen?

On Jan 15th, an Omani delegation left Sanaa following meetings with the Houthi officials in the city. The Omanis met with Mahdi Al-Mashat, President of the “Supreme Political Council,” who confirmed the Houthi adherence to these demands which were described by the UNSC as being “maximalist.”

Over the past weeks, the Houthis escalated their accusations to Saudi Arabia of carrying out border artillery bombardment on Saada province which is the Houthi bastion. This allegation was denied by the Arab Coalition Spokesperson and has been seen as an indication of the heated negotiations between the two parties. 

Although the internationally-recognized government has not taken part in these binary negotiations, some of its officials said that they support any such efforts. 

On Feb 2nd, Yemeni Foreign Minister, Ahmed Bin Mubarak, “There are regional efforts to make a convergence of views regarding the implementation of some articles of the UN truce”. He indicated that the efforts “failed to reach an agreement to renew the truce.”

Commenting on the meeting with Rashad Al-Alimi, Office of the Special Envoy to Yemen said: “Grundberg met with Al-Alimi to discuss the latest developments and the importance of the Yemeni parties seizing the current opportunity to bring an end to the conflict in Yemen.” 

Saba New Agency conveyed Al-Alimi’s affirmation that “PLC supports regional and international efforts to push the Houthis for dealing positively with all the benign endeavors to launch a comprehensive UN-led political operation.” 

Southern political analyst Salah Al-Sakaldi believes that “the truce for Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is stable as long as the Houthi air force and missiles don’t target the vital interests of Saudi Arabia and UAE and as long as the military airforce does not attack Sanaa.” 

He added to “South24 Center” that “this situation encouraged Riyadh, Sanaa and the UN to engage in the consultations although the truce has not been officially renewed”. 

Regarding the position of PLC towards these negotiations, Al-Sakaldi said: “PLC and other officially recognized Yemeni bodies don’t have the choice to accept or refuse to talk about a certain stance towards the entire issues including these negotiations.” 

He added: “PLC gets all information about the negotiation path from Saudi Arabia to just put it in the picture. The decision-making is in the hands of the active parties militarily and economically as being de-facto actors who possess the solution.” 

Al-Sakaldi believes that “these parties are limited to Riyadh and Sanaa regarding determining the fate of North Yemen, and between Riyadh and STC regarding South Yemen.” 

Sanaa-based political analyst Rashid Al-Haddad pointed out that the negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are “going on and have not been halted for months.” 

He told “South24 Center”: “these talks reflect a Saudi desire to end the conflict in Yemen and move from war to peace”. 

Al-Haddad attributed the failure of efforts over the past period to reach an agreement to the “non-convergence of points of view."

Southerners have adopted a stance that refuses any new deal in Yemen which includes responding to the Houthi demands at the expense of the South Yemen’s resources, people, and issue.” 

During the meeting with Grundberg, STC’s Secretary General said:”Any endeavors to renew the truce according to the conditions of the Houthi militias that don’t consider the demands and aspirations of Southerners represented in a two-state solution will not achieve pacification or pave the way for a sustainable peace.”

The Southern official renewed STC's demand that “South Yemen needs to be represented by an independent delegation in the inclusive political process negotiations, as well as enabling Southerners to manage the affairs of their provinces during the negotiations until reaching an all-out peace agreement.” STC’s media quoted Grundberg as saying that “South Yemen issue is central to the political operation and that there is no alternative for comprehensive negotiations.” 

Mohammed Al-Ghaithi, Head of the Consultation and Reconciliation Commission and Head of the STC's General Directorate of Foreign Affairs, warned of “patching solutions.” 

He tweeted that “comprehensive, fair, and permanent peace is desired by everyone. However, this peace has not been achieved by patching solutions and initiatives led by the international and regional community in 1994, 2012, 2013, and 2015 until today”.

He added: "We do not need to overpass our reality again because the outcome will be like its predecessors, a tour of war and conflict.” He indicated that reconciliation and peace begin with designing a framework for an inclusive process that includes an authentic treatment of the roots of the crisis and the reality considerations in which everyone participates to ensure sustainability.” 

Salem Al-Awlaqi, Member of STC’s Presidium said that “Peace will not be a real one until it achieves South Yemen demands. Without this, it will be fragile and unsustainable.” 

On Feb 2nd, STC leaders met with a delegation from the US National Democratic Institute. The southern leaders affirmed that "there is no peace or stability except with the two-state solution and a return to the pre-1990 status". 

Al-Sakaldi believes that STC “is very angry and dissatisfied towards the Saudi arrangements with the Houthis for a cease-fire because STC is an active party on the ground and the only one which achieved a military victory against the Houthis.”

He added that “STC has to be involved in such a decisive phase. Any alienation of it in this stage will necessarily mean its absence from the final phase of political negotiations.” He indicated that "STC’s space of doubt has widened following the latest online campaign by Saudi activists".

Moreover, the French intelligence website “Intelligence Online” claimed that “Abu Dhabi does not accept Riyadh’s attempt to find a direct agreement with the Houthis.” 

Rachid Al-Haddad believes that “the expected political scenarios during the coming period are related to the implementation of the truce in case of reaching an agreement to extend it. 

He added: “There are positive aspects such as the flow of fuel supplies to the Port of Al-Hodeidah, and allowing a weekly three flights from the Sanaa Airport. Such efforts will succeed unless there is a setback in those negotiations.” 

He added: “There are good understandings about paying salaries and lifting the restrictions imposed on the Sanaa Airport and the Port of Aden as well as opening the roads between the provinces according to certain mechanisms which will be discussed with security supervision.” 

Al-Sakaldi said that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis will likely reach understandings during the coming period. He concluded that the two parties became convinced of the political solution after realizing the impossibility of the military solution.” 

However, according to Al-Sakaldi, the big amount of mutual mistrust stands as a barrier adding that “every party, especially the Houthis, attempts to impose its conditions seen by the other party as difficult to be implemented.” 

However, the political analyst believes that “with the presence of a reliable mediator such as Oman, an agreement between KSA and the Saudis will be concluded sooner or later.” He added that an “American-Western consensus towards these efforts would increase the state of optimism".

With the fact that the previous versions of the UN-sponsored truce in Yemen provided more time for armament and arranging ranks, especially for the Houthis, it seems that any similar agreement today with more privileges to the Houthis would have massive negative ramifications.

The Saudi withdrawal policy would encourage the Houthis to exploit any incoming agreement gradually and launch subsequent new battles to achieve their greeds based upon transboundary religious, and doctrinal ideologies. Additionally, this would widen the rift inside PLC.