Possible Reasons for AQAP's Comeback in Hadramout

Although AQAP is not currently operationally active in Wadi Hadramout, this does not mean that Wadi Hadramout is devoid of its elements. In contrast, the cessation of the activity may be evidence of a strong presence of AQAP's elements in the Wadi's districts. During the past year, AQAP avoided activities in the governorates that provide it with safe havens. These hotbeds cannot be available without the presence and domination of parties that have coordination or understanding relationships with the group.

For example, AQAP's activities ceased completely in Shabwa and areas in Abyan which were under the control of the Islah Party in 2019 and 2020, backed by Saudi Arabia. AQAP itself admitted fighting with these parties, not against them. Previously, AQAP acknowledged that it fought within the ranks of the Islah on more than one front. [1] Likewise, AQAP attacked Southern forces and the UAE. It threatened to target them after driving the forces affiliated with the Islah Party out of Shabwa. AQAP leader Abu Ali Al-Hadrami referred to this in a speech in which he mentioned former Shabwa Governor Mohammed Saleh Bin Adyo by name. [2] Prior this date, AQAP had a presence in the governorate taking it as a starting point to carry out operations outside it as well as for recruitment and training purposes. However, AQAP did not implement any operations there because the forces controlling the governorate were not among its targets.

Although Saudi Arabia was aware of AQAP’s presence in the areas under the control of the Islah Party, it had not taken any action against it. This is despite the Saudi realization that AQAP can benefit from the military support and weapons delivered to the Kingdom’s ally there. Therefore, the task of the Southern forces in Abyan and Shabwa was exceedingly difficult as they did not face AQAP alone. For example, confirmed information stressed that Saudi officials were infuriated by the operation “Arrows of the East” launched by the Southern forces under the instructions of STC President Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, in Abyan in August 2022.

The current situation in Wadi Hadramout is like what it was in Shabwa and Abyan years ago. All elements to replicate the same scenario are there. This includes the domination of parties affiliated with the Islah party on Wadi Hadramout in addition to a regional policy that ignores the impact of continuing this control on strategic Southern areas.

Sources told "South24 Center" that many AQAP elements who were in Abyan and Shabwa left them toward Wadi Hadramout after the Southern forces controlled Shabwa and cities in Abyan. Few AQAP elements remained in the two governorates to distract these forces from resuming their operations that aim at expelling AQAP completely from South Yemen.

Although the readiness of the Southern forces to launch operations similar to "the Arrows of the East", there is what looks like a Saudi veto against this kind of operations. In contrast, Saudi Arabia is keen on reinforcing the Islah's influence in Wadi Hadramout areas despite its realization that this would accordingly strengthen the influence of extremist groups, foremost of which is AQAP.

It is not just related to military support. Over the recent period, Saudi Arabia nurtured the idea of local identities in Hadramout, Abyan and Shabwa which did not exist before. This kingdom supported it by establishing entities under the names of "council", "alliance" and others. In this aspect, Riyadh may go further. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia ignores that this can lead to a convenient environment for AQAP and other "terrorist" groups. Given that, it can be said that the war on terror may witness its worst setback due to the Saudi policy despite what was achieved by the Southern forces in this regard.

One cannot forget that Wadi Hadramout is among AQAP's important bastions. It witnessed the most heinous crime when AQAP's field commander Jalal Belaidy Al-Marqashi slaughtered 14 soldiers in 'Hawtat Al-Habib Zein" and filmed the crime. [3] In April 2015, AQAP seized control on the coast of Hadramout and announced Al-Mukalla as the group's governorate. [4]

Last week, Islah leader Salah Batis was denied passage to Seiyun by a security checkpoint in Hadramout. This came hours after he appeared along with Islah Shura member Al-Hasan Abkar who is included in the US terrorist lists. [5]